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Peace talks offer ‘best chance’

May 12th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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Editor’s note: Mona Yacoubian is a senior adviser on the Middle East at the Stimson Center, a nonprofit and nonpartisan think tank that studies peace and security challenges around the world.

(CNN) — The recent call by the United States and Russia for an international conference on Syria offers the best chance for a peaceful resolution to the escalating conflict that has claimed more than 70,000 lives and turned an estimated 1.4 million Syrians into refugees.

The peace talks, proposed May 7 by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, face significant obstacles from the recalcitrant Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad and a fragmented opposition.

Nonetheless, the U.S.-Russian diplomatic Hail Mary could finally begin to shift the deadly dynamics of the 2-year-old Syrian conflict from deepening militarization toward a political solution designed to end the horrific violence.

Mona Yacoubian

So far, Russia has been an important backer of the Syrian regime, supplying weapons and blocking U.N. sanctions against the government. President Barack Obama has called for al-Assad to step aside but has resisted providing the rebels with weapons that he fears could end up in the wrong hands.

Now Washington and Moscow realize that Syria’s sectarian civil war has entered a dangerous phase. Israel’s recent airstrikes inside Syria underscore the potential for the conflict to erupt into a broader regional conflagration. Spillover into neighboring Lebanon and Iraq has provoked destabilizing sectarian violence.

Inside Syria, intensified fighting and sectarian cleansing could presage the country’s fragmentation into sectarian enclaves. Add to this the likely use of chemical weapons and the growing influence of groups affiliated with al Qaeda. It is no wonder that the United States and Russia might finally put aside their differences on Syria to forge a consensus on how to end the crisis.


Syria’s internally displaced


Syrian opposition: Russia changed stance


The Internet goes dark in Syria


A war wary village

But U.S.-Russian rapprochement is the easy part. Resolving Syria’s complex conflict will require substantial diplomatic ingenuity against long odds.

A peace conference would build on the June 2012 Geneva Plan, a U.N.-brokered agreement that established a road map for Syria’s peaceful transition. The plan quickly faltered when the U.S. and Russia could not agree on al-Assad’s role, a detail left purposefully ambiguous. The Syrian opposition continues to insist al-Assad must go as a precondition for any transition talks. Al-Assad refuses to entertain any discussion of his exit.

Washington and Moscow — along with their regional allies — will need to exert pressure on the Syrian opposition and regime respectively to come to the negotiating table. In a notable indicator that transition talks on Syria might be gaining wide support, Iran and Jordan have issued a joint statement endorsing such talks.

But even if America and Russia succeed in convening a peace conference, it is far from clear that the Syrians around the table will wield sufficient influence over the forces fighting on the ground.

Indeed, the Syrian crisis now runs far deeper than the question of al-Assad’s fate. The sectarian hatreds unleashed inside Syria will demand far greater international involvement.

An international peacekeeping force will likely be needed to ensure against reprisals and continuing communal violence. Extensive peace-building efforts — including cross-sectarian dialogue, national reconciliation talks and transitional justice structures — will be essential elements for Syria’s long road to peace. Involvement by the U.S. and Russia will be critical to garnering international support and resources to back these efforts.

Finally, in pursuit of Syria’s peaceful transition, Washington and Moscow must begin to address the wider regional tensions that have fed and been exacerbated by Syria’s crisis. The United States, in particular, must leverage its regional influence to tamp down mounting sectarian tensions in Iraq and Lebanon.

Rejuvenating the Middle East peace process is another key element that could enhance stability, as are talks underway between the Turkish government and Kurdish rebels to resolve their decades-long conflict. Iran’s role as Syria’s staunchest ally, as well as its deepening shadow war with Israel, cannot be ignored.

Given the significant challenges, the odds that the U.S.-Russian peace conference gambit will succeed are slim. Yet, in a universe of bad options on Syria, peace talks sponsored by America and Russia merit the international community’s full backing.

Military options — arming the rebels, airstrikes and no-fly zones — will likely be the fallback if this new peace effort fails. But each of these choices carries significant risks, not least the possibility of greater civilian casualties and lengthening of the conflict.

Before forging ahead with actions to escalate the fighting and the bloodshed in Syria’s mounting tragedy, diplomacy should be given another chance.

Follow us on Twitter @CNNOpinion.

Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Mona Yacoubian.


Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/10/opinion/yacoubian-syria-peace-conference/index.html?eref=edition

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NewsRipplesWeb/~3/LM8NWHX5OMM/peace-talks-offer-best-chance

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RipleysStuff/~3/6Ux2adbcLQU/peace-talks-offer-best-chance

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Q&A: Wider conflict brewing?

May 12th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.height=”360″ id=”articleGalleryPhoto0088″ width=”640″ /Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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(CNN) — Israel is taking steps to defend itself against threatened retaliation from Syria after claims it launched a night assault on a suburb of the capital Damascus on Sunday. This was believed to be the second Israeli attack in three days.

The country positioned rocket interception batteries along its northern border and closed northern airspace to civil aviation after Syria vowed it would “suffer” for the alleged airstrikes on what it called a “scientific research facility.”

Israel declined to comment on reported attacks.

In an exclusive interview with CNN’s Frederick Pleitgen, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad called the alleged assault a “declaration of war.” Meanwhile, condemnation flowed from its allies, including Iran, which said the “vicious acts” could “jeopardize (the) security of the entire region.”

What do we know about the extent of Israel’s intervention?


Israel won’t confirm, deny Syria attack


Will Israel, Syria go to war?


Syrian official: Israel has declared war


Map: Syria Map: Syria


Map: SyriaMap: Syria

We know what’s being claimed by Syria, and that is that several explosions hit the scientific research center in Jamraya early Sunday, killing 42 Syrian soldiers, the opposition Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Monday, citing medical sources. It said 100 people remained missing. Syria’s state news agency, Sana, said early information indicated the explosions were caused by Israeli rockets, though Israel has a policy or refusing to comment on attacks attributed to its military.

It’s not the first time Israel has targeted the site, Sana reported, pointing to an attack on January 30. At the time, a U.S. official told CNN the claim was false, saying that Israeli fighter jets targeted a Syrian government convoy carrying surface-to-air missiles bound for the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon. Syria denied there were such shipments.

Last week, two U.S. officials backed up Syrian claims that Israel had launched airstrikes in the country on Thursday or Friday, taking the total number of potential strikes within Syrian territory to three, including Sunday’s alleged attack.

On Sunday, the Lebanese Army and UNIFIL — the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon — intensified their patrols along Lebanon’s border with Israel, according to Lebanon’s national news agency. It said the move followed the alleged blasts and “intensified Israeli Army patrols” along the “‘Blue Line’ within the occupied territories.”

United Nations Security-General Ban Ki-Moon has urged all sides to exercise “maximum calm and restraint.” However, Ban’s spokesman said in a statement issued on Sunday that the United Nations could not “independently verify what has occurred.”

Is Israel saying anything?

Israel’s long-standing policy has been to deny comment on claims of attacks. However, it has previously said that it would target any transfer of weapons to Hezbollah or other terrorist groups, as well as any effort to smuggle Syrian weapons into Lebanon that could threaten Israel.

Shaul Mofaz, a lawmaker in Israel’s Knesset or parliament, told Israeli Army Radio on Sunday that Israel wasn’t meddling in Syria’s civil war. But he insisted that Israel must protect itself from Lebanese militants. “For Israel, it is very important that the front group for Iran, which is in Lebanon, needs to be stopped,” Mofaz said.

“Hezbollah is deeply involved up to its neck in what is happening in Syria,” Mofaz said, before adding “Hezbollah helps the Iranians navigate against the rebels.”

How is Hezbollah involved, and what is its connection to Iran?

The supply of weapons by Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon is thought to be at the heart of the issue. Iran has long supported Hezbollah with funding and weapons, which it’s alleged are smuggled via Syria to the organization’s Lebanese base. After Sunday’s strike, Iran’s foreign minister phoned his counterpart in Syria and “praised the resistance by the Syrian government against the enemies’ plots.”

Hezbollah is a Shiite militant group regarded by Israel and the United States as a terrorist organization, although its political wing is a key player in Lebanon’s government. It has been linked to a number of attacks against Israeli, U.S. and other Western targets. In 2006, Israel and Hezbollah fought a month-long war in Lebanon, northern Israel and the Golan Heights which ended with a U.N.-brokered cease-fire. At the time, Israel was said to be surprised by the intensity and weaponry displayed by the Hezbollah forces.

Israel says it has intelligence that Hezbollah has long been supported by the Syrian government and Hezbollah has in turn been supporting the Syrian regime throughout the country’s civil war.

Hezbollah has been accused of sending fighters into Syria to support the Assad regime in the south and south west, but has denied these claims, saying its militants have, only recently, begun defending Lebanese border villages from attack by Syrian rebels. In 2009, the top U.S. diplomat in Damascus disclosed that Syria had begun delivery of ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, according to official cables leaked to and published by WikiLeaks.

How real are fears that this could lead to a regional Middle East war?

Few sides at this point would logically appreciate a widening of the conflict — but hopes of resolving it seem as distant as ever.

“The Syrian struggle has not only spread into Syria’s neighbors, like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Turkey — but has also become a battlefield wherein Israel and Iran are challenging each other,” Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, wrote in an opinion piece for CNN.

“There is also a fierce geostrategic rivalry unfolding in Syria between Sunni-dominant Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, a rivalry invested and fuelled with sectarianism. A real danger exists that this complex conflict in Syria could escalate into a region-wide battle involving Syria’s major allies — Iran and Hezbollah, and Israel, other regional powers, and the Western states.”

Analysts say that as part of the Lebanese government the group would be risking a great deal if it responded to Israeli aggression with force. Israeli officials are betting that al-Assad will not retaliate, both because his forces have their hands full already and because any strike against Israel would risk Israeli counterstrikes that might seriously degrade his advantages in the civil war, like airpower. “They don’t want to open a new front that might be the last one they open,” says one Israeli military official on condition of anonymity. “They would suffer a knockout punch.”

Syria’s military is exhausted by the civil war and it would make little sense to open a new front against the best equipped military in the region, unless it was in a last-ditch attempt to garner flagging support as its internal morale vanished.

But two years into the Syrian civil war there does not seem to be a military solution. “It is a long war of attrition with no end in sight,” wrote Gerges. “Neither internal camp seems to have the means to deliver a decisive blow.

“Only a political solution will put an end to the shedding of Syrian blood and prevent the unthinkable: a region-wide conflict that would have catastrophic consequences.”

Hilary Whiteman contributed to this report


Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/06/world/meast/qa-israel-syria/index.html?eref=edition

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/NewsRipplesWeb/~3/3asJQ3w_aSM/qa-wider-conflict-brewing

Article source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/RipleysStuff/~3/zar0yag4Zno/qa-wider-conflict-brewing

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Why Syria’s war suddenly looks more dangerous

May 12th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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(CNN) — While the world’s attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase — one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.

What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.

Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence — let alone control — the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States “plunging into the killing fields of Syria … because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict.”

Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to “inherit” Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.

And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.

For Syrian Shiites, civil war isn’t simply rebels vs. government


Syrian opposition: Russia changed stance


Obama takes aim at Syria, North Korea


A war wary village


Difficulty of proving chemical weapons

Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: “There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia’s anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.

And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.

Kerry announces more aid to Syria

Given that background, here are five reasons Syria’s war suddenly looks more dangerous.

1: Israel and Hezbollah’s proxy war

For two years, Israel has looked on with growing anxiety as brutal repression in Syria has become de facto civil war. Now a high-octane game of regional poker is under way. The Israelis have not admitted carrying out the devastating strikes of last week, but U.S. officials tell CNN they have no doubt Israel was responsible.

Why would Israel suddenly become an active participant? While much has been said about President Barack Obama’s “red line” — that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make him reassess U.S. involvement — the Israelis have a different threshold: the transfer of advanced missiles to al-Assad’s ally, the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

Their main worry, U.S. officials say, was the possible transfer of Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles, whose accuracy would pose a new threat to Israel. A consignment of these ballistic missiles had recently arrived at Damascus’ airport. Similarly, the second Israeli strike before dawn Sunday was on a “research facility” near Damascus where weapons destined for Hezbollah were kept.

According to Jane’s Intelligence, Iran’s Defense Ministry reported the test firing of an upgraded Fateh-110 last year, and the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization claimed it had a range in excess of 180 miles (300 kilometers.)

Israel’s motive was not to degrade the Syrian military. It was about sending al-Assad a message (copied to Iran and Hezbollah): “If you try to raise the regional stakes by passing a new generation of short-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, the response will be swift and severe.”

Gerges, author of “Obama and the Middle East,” told CNN that we are seeing “an open-ended war by proxy. … On the one hand you have Israel, regional powers and the Western states; on the other hand you have Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.”

Is Syrian war escalating to wider conflict?

Middle East analyst Juan Cole agrees, writing on his blog: “It is not that the Israelis and Hezbollah are in any direct conflict, but they are gradually both becoming more active in Syria on opposite sides. It is an open question how long this process can continue before the conflict does become direct.”

One miscalculation could provoke a wider escalation.

The stakes for Hezbollah are enormous. For nearly 30 years, it has been sustained by Iranian and Syrian support. If Syria becomes a Sunni-dominated state, Hezbollah’s “rear-base” vanishes, and suddenly it looks more vulnerable to its archenemy Israel, one of whose strategic goals is to counter the growing missile threat from the north.


See destruction from airstrikes in Syria


Syria’s battle of the textbooks


Israel bolsters defense near Syria

Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.

Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime’s battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the “Zionist enemy.”

Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that “Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors.”

But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.

2: More than ever, it’s sectarian

In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.

Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition’s political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.

The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing “irregular” Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria’s (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.

The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that “Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city.”

He warned of “massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas.”

Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that “regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children.”

3: Al-Assad goes for broke?

After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha — loyalists with an existential stake in the regime’s survival.

As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: “The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country.”

Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that “if we can’t control it nor shall you.” To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.

As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.

Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it’s another way of strangling the regime’s ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah’s access to Syria.

The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels’ hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.

Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad’s hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a “no-move” zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.

In essence, that’s what NATO’s mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: “The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources” than in Libya.

4: Chemical Weapons

For much of last year, Obama’s “red line” seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad’s situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?

The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it “has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict.”

Establishing “custody” and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.

A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: “We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening.”

But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria’s massive stockpiles — and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.

In Cordesman’s view, “Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving.”

5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan

Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most — and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia — are backing their own factions as well as supporting the “government-in-waiting.” Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.

Iraq’s beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.

For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.

In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, “Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies” of the Gulf.

Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more “Balkanized” Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.

“You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can’t show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths,” he told an audience over the weekend.

But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey “now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man’s-land on its doorstep.”

The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees — equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population — growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.

Lebanon — whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria — cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah’s growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.

A land of bad options

Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the “shameful” failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.

But Cordesman writes: “Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening.”

And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even “a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq.”

With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.

The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.

“The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.


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Inked with love: Tattoos honor Mom

May 12th, 2013 No comments


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John Clarke got his mum tattoo -- his first and only -- on his shoulder a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-967264'at age 50/a. He revealed it to his mother at her 70th birthday party, despite knowing that she hated tattoos. Now, many thousands of miles away from home, every time I see the tattoo in the mirror, I can smile about that evening and my mum's shocked expression, he said.John Clarke got his “mum” tattoo — his first and only — on his shoulder at age 50. He revealed it to his mother at her 70th birthday party, despite knowing that she hated tattoos. “Now, many thousands of miles away from home, every time I see the tattoo in the mirror, I can smile about that evening and my mum’s shocked expression,” he said.

GW Byers went for a less traditional but increasingly common design: a wrist tattoo in her a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966181'mother's handwriting/a. Her mom passed away in 2008, and five years later, Byers had a tattoo artist copy the signature and heart her mom had written on her college graduation card. She had gorgeous penmanship, said Byers.
GW Byers went for a less traditional but increasingly common design: a wrist tattoo in her mother’s handwriting. Her mom passed away in 2008, and five years later, Byers had a tattoo artist copy the signature and heart her mom had written on her college graduation card. “She had gorgeous penmanship,” said Byers.

Samantha Pender also chose to tattoo her mother's writing. It's on her thigh, surrounded with Mickey Mouse hands forming a heart because her mom was a a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966572'huge Disney fan/a. She would get teary-eyed watching a commercial for Walt Disney World, said Pender. Her dad, brother, and sister-in-law all have similar Disney-themed tattoos in memory of her mom -- although Pender says her mom would probably roll her eyes if she knew. She never understood the point of tattoos, Pender said.Samantha Pender also chose to tattoo her mother’s writing. It’s on her thigh, surrounded with Mickey Mouse hands forming a heart because her mom was a huge Disney fan. She “would get teary-eyed watching a commercial for Walt Disney World,” said Pender. Her dad, brother, and sister-in-law all have similar Disney-themed tattoos in memory of her mom — although Pender says her mom would probably “roll her eyes” if she knew. “She never understood the point” of tattoos, Pender said.

Mary Johnston and her brother have a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-968765'matching tattoos/a in their mother's handwriting. The Mom signature and heart were taken from a birthday card. We both had the tattoo placed on our left shoulder blade because Mom always had our backs, said Johnston. She later added the two daises, one for mom and one for me. We each carried them in our bridal bouquets.Mary Johnston and her brother have matching tattoos in their mother’s handwriting. The “Mom” signature and heart were taken from a birthday card. “We both had the tattoo placed on our left shoulder blade because Mom always had our backs,” said Johnston. She later added the two daises, “one for mom and one for me. We each carried them in our bridal bouquets.”

Judy Jordan asked her mother to write out the words a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966180'strength, courage and wisdom/a so that she could have them tattooed on her arm in her mom's handwriting. The words come from the title of an India.Arie song. Since my mom had to raise my brother and myself on her own, I felt that these words described her perfectly, said Jordan. I can see it constantly and when I get bogged down thinking how hard being a single parent is, I see my tattoo and realize that I am my mother's daughter, so I'm bound to have some of her strength, courage, and wisdom. Judy Jordan asked her mother to write out the words “strength,” “courage” and “wisdom” so that she could have them tattooed on her arm in her mom’s handwriting. The words come from the title of an India.Arie song. “Since my mom had to raise my brother and myself on her own, I felt that these words described her perfectly,” said Jordan. “I can see it constantly and when I get bogged down thinking how hard being a single parent is, I see my tattoo and realize that I am my mother’s daughter, so I’m bound to have some of her strength, courage, and wisdom.”

Kyle Divine a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-967247'honors both his moms/a with a tattoo he got on his arm on Mother's Day in 2006. My moms were the best role models I had while I was growing up, regardless of sexual orientation, he said. I got the tattoo to show them and the world that I am proud to have them as my parents. It also has a more subtle meaning: Without actually saying it, the tattoo says that I am a supporter of gay rights. Divine says both his moms love the ink.Kyle Divine honors both his moms with a tattoo he got on his arm on Mother’s Day in 2006. “My moms were the best role models I had while I was growing up, regardless of sexual orientation,” he said. “I got the tattoo to show them and the world that I am proud to have them as my parents.” It also has a more subtle meaning: “Without actually saying it, the tattoo says that I am a supporter of gay rights.” Divine says both his moms love the ink.

Emily Kirouac wanted the perfect image for her mom tattoo. After much thought, I chose a lighthouse on her calf for two reasons: One, because as long as I can remember, she has collected lighthouses. Two, because my mama is the biggest inspiration in my life, she said. She is the a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966147'light of my life/a. Kirouac says her mom isn't a big fan of tattoos, but when she saw it, she had a tear in her eye and said it was beautiful. That meant everything to me.
Emily Kirouac wanted the perfect image for her mom tattoo. After much thought, “I chose a lighthouse” on her calf for two reasons: “One, because as long as I can remember, she has collected lighthouses. Two, because my mama is the biggest inspiration in my life,” she said. “She is the light of my life.” Kirouac says her mom isn’t a big fan of tattoos, but when she saw it, “she had a tear in her eye and said it was beautiful. That meant everything to me.”

Emily's husband Robert Kirouac also has a mom tattoo on his arm. His mom said that if he was going to get a tattoo, a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-967021'he had to get a mom one/a. Additionally, it had to look like singer Adam Levine's mom tattoo, because she watches him on 'The Voice' and she thinks he's hot, said Kirouac. This was the result -- compare it with Levine's in the next frame. I proudly wear my mom tat because it is exactly what she wanted, and I love to keep my mom happy, said Kirouac.
Emily’s husband Robert Kirouac also has a mom tattoo on his arm. His mom said that if he was going to get a tattoo, he had to get a “mom” one. Additionally, it had to look like singer Adam Levine’s mom tattoo, because “she watches him on ‘The Voice’ and she thinks he’s hot,” said Kirouac. This was the result — compare it with Levine’s in the next frame. “I proudly wear my mom tat because it is exactly what she wanted, and I love to keep my mom happy,” said Kirouac.

Levine's mom tattoo near his elbow.
Levine’s mom tattoo near his elbow.

Rachael Sauceda's ink tribute to her mom is probably the most unconventional of the bunch. Her mother grew up on a pig farm, and Sauceda used to have a shirt with this design as a kid. It's now tattooed on her upper arm. She and both her brothers have a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-968610'matching pig tattoos/a in honor of their mom. She cringes every time we show up with another tattoo, says Sauceda, who has 14, but she has confessed that she does like this one.
Rachael Sauceda’s ink tribute to her mom is probably the most unconventional of the bunch. Her mother grew up on a pig farm, and Sauceda used to have a shirt with this design as a kid. It’s now tattooed on her upper arm. She and both her brothers have matching pig tattoos in honor of their mom. “She cringes every time we show up with another tattoo,” says Sauceda, who has 14, “but she has confessed that she does like this one.”

Brad Allison paid tribute to his parents by a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966653'inking their portraits/a on his forearm. He chose a wedding photograph of his mother and his father's senior picture, and the tattoo artist combined them to create the final design. When Allison got his first tattoo -- he has seven -- his mom had a fit. But when he got this one, his third, he says she cried. The tattoo is especially precious to Allison because his father died five years ago, and it looks as if my mother is watching over him.
Brad Allison paid tribute to his parents by inking their portraits on his forearm. He chose a wedding photograph of his mother and his father’s senior picture, and the tattoo artist combined them to create the final design. When Allison got his first tattoo — he has seven — his mom “had a fit.” But when he got this one, his third, he says she cried. The tattoo is especially precious to Allison because his father died five years ago, and “it looks as if my mother is watching over him.”

Amanda Clifton and her mom have matching tattoos on their feet of a a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966755'mother and daughter/a forming a heart. They had talked about the idea for a while, and finally decided to make it a reality during a mother/daughter vacation in Florida. My mom is my BFF, said Clifton. When you have so much love for a person, it's hard not to show some love with ink. She says she gets lots of compliments on the tattoo and that people frequently remark they want to do the same thing with their own moms.Amanda Clifton and her mom have matching tattoos on their feet of a mother and daughter forming a heart. They had talked about the idea for a while, and finally decided to make it a reality during a mother/daughter vacation in Florida. “My mom is my BFF,” said Clifton. “When you have so much love for a person, it’s hard not to show some love with ink.” She says she gets lots of compliments on the tattoo and that people frequently remark they “want to do the same thing with their own moms.”

Joanne Asbury wanted a tattoo to remember and celebrate her mom after she died in 2001. She decided on an a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966275'image of a daisy/a, since that was her mom's favorite flower. I put her tattoo on my ankle, so she is with me every step I take, said Asbury.
Joanne Asbury wanted a tattoo to remember and celebrate her mom after she died in 2001. She decided on an image of a daisy, since that was her mom’s favorite flower. “I put her tattoo on my ankle, so she is with me every step I take,” said Asbury.

Jill Shingledecker's mom is an a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-968486'equestrian/a, so she decided to honor that part of her life. She has been showing and riding horses since she was a little girl, so I got a horse with her initials below, said Shingledecker. It's on her right arm because she is my strength -- I'm right-handed. She also has a tattoo tribute to her dad on her left arm, close to my heart [because] he was killed in Vietnam when I was a baby.
Jill Shingledecker’s mom is an equestrian, so she decided to honor that part of her life. “She has been showing and riding horses since she was a little girl, so I got a horse with her initials below,” said Shingledecker. It’s on her right arm “because she is my strength — I’m right-handed.” She also has a tattoo tribute to her dad on her left arm, “close to my heart [because] he was killed in Vietnam when I was a baby.”

Kathy Lake also chose an a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-968196'animal motif/a on her calf to honor her mother's memory. Her mom liked rabbits, and Lake made her rabbit purple to also represent her mom's favorite color. She had diabetes and had a lot of complications from it, so when I got the tattoo, it may have hurt me for a few minutes, but I toughed it out because I thought about all the pain she dealt with throughout her life and she never complained, said Lake.
Kathy Lake also chose an animal motif on her calf to honor her mother’s memory. Her mom liked rabbits, and Lake made her rabbit purple to also represent her mom’s favorite color. “She had diabetes and had a lot of complications from it, so when I got the tattoo, it may have hurt me for a few minutes, but I toughed it out because I thought about all the pain she dealt with throughout her life and she never complained,” said Lake.

Maranda Green's mother passed away from complications of a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-966677'polycystic kidney disease/a when she was just 14. At 19, Green was diagnosed with the same condition. The meaning of her sunflower tattoo is twofold: It's in memory of her mom, and it's a symbol of her own resolve in fighting the disease. Why a sunflower? My mom always loved those big, seemingly flowing fields of sunflowers, said Green. The tattoo is, of course, on her lower back -- over the kidneys.Maranda Green’s mother passed away from complications of polycystic kidney disease when she was just 14. At 19, Green was diagnosed with the same condition. The meaning of her sunflower tattoo is twofold: It’s in memory of her mom, and it’s a symbol of her own resolve in fighting the disease. Why a sunflower? “My mom always loved those big, seemingly flowing fields of sunflowers,” said Green. The tattoo is, of course, on her lower back — over the kidneys.

Edith Sanchez describes her a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-970608'mother as her rock/a. She always put me first. So, when it came to honoring mom, she decided to go for a less traditional tattoo. She contacted a href='http://www.katvond.net/_html/bio.htm' target='_blank'famed tattoo artist Kat Van D /aand requested a session. To her surprise, she received a response and was able to get a portrait tattoo of her mother. I think it was fate, I hear all these stories about years on waiting list...in a month I got in, she said.Edith Sanchez describes her mother as her rock. “She always put me first.” So, when it came to honoring mom, she decided to go for a less traditional tattoo. She contacted famed tattoo artist Kat Van D and requested a session. To her surprise, she received a response and was able to get a portrait tattoo of her mother. “I think it was fate, I hear all these stories about years on waiting list…in a month I got in,” she said.

After Lori Krstich's mother was diagnosed with leukemia seven years ago, Krstich wanted to show her mom she was a href='http://ireport.cnn.com/docs/DOC-970705'always in her heart/a. I love memorial tattoos, but thought that an even better idea was to show her how much I love her while she's here, she said. She got a tattoo with the words mom on her ankle. Her mom loves the design, and is still living strong now that her cancer is in remission. After Lori Krstich’s mother was diagnosed with leukemia seven years ago, Krstich wanted to show her mom she was always in her heart. “I love memorial tattoos, but thought that an even better idea was to show her how much I love her while she’s here,” she said. She got a tattoo with the words “mom” on her ankle. Her mom loves the design, and is still living strong now that her cancer is in remission.


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(CNN) — Tattoos have had a variety of purposes over their 5,000-year history. In cultures from ancient Egyptian to Polynesian, they’ve served as medicine, rite of passage, good-luck charm, punishment, decoration, religious, political or status symbol, and, of course, tribute to a loved one.

And many times, that loved one is Mom.

“Just about anybody that’s heavily tattooed, if they don’t have it already, [a mom tattoo] is definitely on their list of things to get,” said tattoo artist Alan Flores, who works out of 13 Roses Tattoo Parlour in Atlanta.

What’s thought of as the “traditional” mom tattoo — a heart with a banner, stereotypically seen on World War II-era sailors — is still a popular design. “I’ve done plenty of mom tattoos with banners around hearts,” said Flores. But custom motifs, handwriting and even portraits are gaining ground — check out the gallery above.

“I did one the other day on a guy; his mom is a tennis player, so I drew up a head with a tennis racket,” said Flores. And sometimes customers just come to him with general ideas — “favorite flowers, things she likes” — and then “it’s up to me to create that image that they’re picturing.”

In Flores’ experience, people usually get mom or dad tattoos as memorials for a parent after they’ve passed away. Of course, they can also honor a special occasion or serve as a tribute. Kyle Divine, in the gallery above, got his tattoo on Mother’s Day in 2006, and John Clarke got his for his mother’s 70th birthday. Amanda Clifton and her mom got matching tattoos during a mother/daughter vacation.

“When you have so much love for a person, it’s hard not to show some love with ink,” Clifton remarked.

Pondering a tattoo of your own to honor mom? If you’re thinking of a custom or unique piece, like a portrait, Flores recommends bringing in your tattoo artist from the start to refine your vision.

“I know what works as a tattoo and I know what doesn’t work,” he said. “A lot of art can’t be translated to skin.”

Once you’ve got your mom ink, be sure to share the love and show off your design on CNN iReport. Happy Mother’s Day!

Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/10/living/mom-tattoos-irpt/index.html?eref=edition

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They’re alive, but how will they live?

May 11th, 2013 No comments

(CNN) — The world will never fully know the unspeakable tortures they endured. But they survived.

Elizabeth Smart was kidnapped from her bedroom at 14, declared a child bride by her captor and sexually assaulted for nine months. Jaycee Dugard, 11, was snatched from a roadside and held for 18 years, eventually bearing two babies fathered by her rapist kidnapper. Taken at 11, Shawn Hornbeck was sexually abused by his abductor for four years before police freed him.

This week in Cleveland, three new names were added to that list of young abduction survivors. After a decade in captivity, Amanda Berry, Georgina “Gina” DeJesus and Michelle Knight now face a challenging journey toward recovery.

Related: Profiles of Berry, DeJesus and Knight

Amanda Berry vanished a few blocks from her Cleveland home on April 21, 2003. She was 16. On Monday, May 6, she was found with two other missing women blocks from where she disappeared. Click through to see more miraculous stories of lost children who were found months or even years later.Amanda Berry vanished a few blocks from her Cleveland home on April 21, 2003. She was 16. On Monday, May 6, she was found with two other missing women blocks from where she disappeared. Click through to see more miraculous stories of lost children who were found months or even years later.

Georgina Gina DeJesus was found on May 6 with Amanda Berry and Michelle Knight in Cleveland. DeJesus was last seen in the Ohio city on April 2, 2004, on her way home from school. She was 14 when she went missing.Georgina “Gina” DeJesus was found on May 6 with Amanda Berry and Michelle Knight in Cleveland. DeJesus was last seen in the Ohio city on April 2, 2004, on her way home from school. She was 14 when she went missing.

Michelle Knight was the third of the three women who escaped from a captor's house in Cleveland on May 6. She was last seen on August 22, 2002, when she was 21.Michelle Knight was the third of the three women who escaped from a captor’s house in Cleveland on May 6. She was last seen on August 22, 2002, when she was 21.

On June 5, 2002, when Elizabeth Smart was 14, she was abducted from her bed, raped and held captive for nine months by Brian David Mitchell. On May 25, 2011, Mitchell was sentenced to life in prison.On June 5, 2002, when Elizabeth Smart was 14, she was abducted from her bed, raped and held captive for nine months by Brian David Mitchell. On May 25, 2011, Mitchell was sentenced to life in prison.

Natascha Kampusch, an Austrian woman, was held prisoner in a basement for eight years from the time she was 10. Her abductor, Wolfgang Priklopil, beat her up to 200 times a week, manacled her to him as they slept and forced her to walk around half-naked as a domestic slave after kidnapping her in 1998. Kampusch escaped in August 2006. Priklopil committed suicide shortly thereafter.Natascha Kampusch, an Austrian woman, was held prisoner in a basement for eight years from the time she was 10. Her abductor, Wolfgang Priklopil, beat her up to 200 times a week, manacled her to him as they slept and forced her to walk around half-naked as a domestic slave after kidnapping her in 1998. Kampusch escaped in August 2006. Priklopil committed suicide shortly thereafter.

Eleven-year-old Jaycee Lee Dugard was abducted in 1991 from outside her home in South Lake Tahoe, California. She was held by Phillip and Nancy Garrido in a hidden compound of sheds along with the two daughters to whom she subsequently gave birth. Dugard and her daughters were found in 2009.Eleven-year-old Jaycee Lee Dugard was abducted in 1991 from outside her home in South Lake Tahoe, California. She was held by Phillip and Nancy Garrido in a hidden compound of sheds along with the two daughters to whom she subsequently gave birth. Dugard and her daughters were found in 2009.

Shawn Damian Hornbeck spent more than four years with Michael Devlin, passing as his captor's son in the St. Louis suburb of Kirkwood, Missouri. Shawn was 15 when he was found in 2007 and reunited with his family. Shawn Damian Hornbeck spent more than four years with Michael Devlin, passing as his captor’s son in the St. Louis suburb of Kirkwood, Missouri. Shawn was 15 when he was found in 2007 and reunited with his family.

Elisabeth Fritzl was imprisoned and raped by her father, Josef Fritzl, for 24 years. Fritzl lured his daughter into the basement in 1984 when she was 18 years old. She had seven of his children. She was released at age 42 after her ill 19-year-old daughter was taken to the hospital and police called the family in for abuse suspicions. In 2009 Josef Fritzl was sentenced to life in prison. Elisabeth Fritzl was imprisoned and raped by her father, Josef Fritzl, for 24 years. Fritzl lured his daughter into the basement in 1984 when she was 18 years old. She had seven of his children. She was released at age 42 after her ill 19-year-old daughter was taken to the hospital and police called the family in for abuse suspicions. In 2009 Josef Fritzl was sentenced to life in prison.

Carlina White was abducted in 1987 from a Harlem hospital room. She learned her real identity 23 years later after finding her case online. She contacted the police after finding a baby picture that looked like her baby pictures on a missing children website. She was reconnected with her birth mother in 2011. White said she'd never felt like she belonged to the family who raised her.Carlina White was abducted in 1987 from a Harlem hospital room. She learned her real identity 23 years later after finding her case online. She contacted the police after finding a baby picture that looked like her baby pictures on a missing children website. She was reconnected with her birth mother in 2011. White said she’d never felt like she belonged to the family who raised her.

Steve Carter also discovered he was a missing person after an online search. He had been adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. At 35 years old, he heard about White's case and clicked on Missingkids.com and found an age progression photo of himself as an infant. It came to light that biological father, Mark Barnes, reported him missing more than three decades ago after his mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn't return.Steve Carter also discovered he was a missing person after an online search. He had been adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. At 35 years old, he heard about White’s case and clicked on Missingkids.com and found an age progression photo of himself as an infant. It came to light that biological father, Mark Barnes, reported him missing more than three decades ago after his mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn’t return.


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Missing children who were foundMissing children who were found


When kidnapped become brainwashed


Kidnapping survivors search for ‘normal’


Kidnapped teen leaves ‘CSI’ clues


How to heal after a kidnapping

What can they learn from the paths followed by Smart, Dugard, Hornbeck and others that led them from darkness to brighter lives?

The resiliency of these survivors is nothing short of remarkable. Smart, now 25, is married. She formed a foundation to battle child abuse and travels the country as a public speaker. Nearly four years after regaining her freedom, Dugard, 33, heads her own group aimed at helping victims like herself. She wrote a book about her ordeal and has learned to ride horseback. Hornbeck, 21, works full-time and wants to finish his education.

Opinion: A survivor’s letter to Amanda, Gina, and Michelle

Experts credit much of their recovery to access to important health care resources and strong family support.

There’s another factor: faith. These survivors likely were more confident that they would re-emerge into a safe world.

“Some of these people have had a considerable amount of faith, and they’ve entered into a community that has been very accepting and welcoming,” said Dr. Wynn Schwartz, a Harvard Medical School psychologist.

Also: time. Smart, Dugard and Hornbeck initially walled themselves off from pesky news reporters, says Dr. Bonny Forrest, a San Diego-based psychologist and attorney. Being “very selective about their interviews allowed them to avoid having to immediately relive and retell” their traumatic experiences. It “allowed them to decompress or let go of their stress in a time period that was appropriate for them.”

But for every survivor of childhood abduction, there are countless cases with endings that will never be known.

According to the FBI, more than half of all missing persons cases in the United States involve children.

Specifically, of all 87,217 active missing persons cases in 2012, the FBI says 47,366 missing people were 20 or younger. That’s 54.3%. Although many are runaways and don’t wish to be found, an unknown number might have been abducted.

At a glance: Missing persons in the U.S.

For young abductees, experts say, survival is a rare thing.

Here are some of their inspiring stories:

Smart: ‘I was marked’

It was late at night inside the bedroom of 14-year-old Elizabeth Smart. A drifter named Brian David Mitchell climbed through a window of her Salt Lake City, Utah, home and put a knife to her throat. He forced her to walk to a nearby campsite, where Mitchell and his wife, Wanda Barzee, “sealed” Smart to him in a brief ceremony and raped her. The couple forced Smart to wander with them from town to town, often keeping her tethered to trees.


Smart endorses child safety program

Nine months after her abduction, police stopped Mitchell, Barzee and Smart as they left a Walmart in Sandy, Utah, just five miles from her family’s home. Smart’s life as a captive was finally over.

“I felt that because of what he had done to me, I was marked,” Smart later testified at Mitchell’s trial. “I wasn’t the same. My personal value had dropped. I was nothing. Another person could never love me.”

Related: Elizabeth Smart: What ifs and near misses

Smart’s fears proved to be unfounded as she leaned on her faith and her family. And this past week, she offered to share what she learned during her recovery with the Cleveland victims.

“Nothing that has happened to them will ever diminish their value,” Smart told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday. “It should never hold them back from doing what they want to do.”

Smart reminded them to “take as much time as they need” to recover before going public with the details of their ordeals.  “And if they decide never to share their stories, that would be OK, too.”

Her remarkable recovery has included co-authoring a Justice Department pamphlet about how to survive abduction. Smart works as a contributor for a national TV news network and she runs a foundation aimed at protecting children from predators.

Last year, Smart married Scotsman Matthew Gilmour, whom she met while they performed missionary work in France for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Dugard focuses on hope

In 1991, Jaycee Dugard was a carefree tween walking toward a school bus stop in South Lake Tahoe, California. But when Phillip and Nancy Garrido drove by looking for a victim, 11-year-old Jaycee’s life changed forever.

A picture of Jaycee Dugard before she was kidnapped sits framed in her stepfather's home.

For the next 18 years, Jaycee became a captive at a hidden compound in Antioch, California. Not allowed to say her own name and raped repeatedly, she bore two daughters fathered by Garrido.

“There’sa switch that I had to shut off,” she told ABC News’ Diane Sawyer. “Just went someplace else.” In her book, “A Stolen Life,” Dugard wrote that she survived each day by concentrating on her children and the hope of seeing her mother again.

Her captivity ended in 2009 after two police officers at the University of California, Berkeley, met Garrido and the two daughters and noticed “there was just something about the girls that wasn’t right.” Suspicions after that meeting eventually led to the Garridos’ arrest and freedom for Dugard and her little girls.

“You can endure tough situations and survive,” she wrote in her book. “Not just survive, but be okay even on the inside, too. I’m not sure how I did endure all that I did. … I’m beginning to think that I have secretly known all along.”

Related: Dugard reacts to Cleveland abductions


Dugard: Amazing time to talk about hope

And it was her support network that was key to her recovery. “With the help of my mom and my family, and especially my therapist I have come to realize I can now do things for myself,” Dugard wrote. “I can make my own decisions and not worry about if it’s not what someone else wants.”

Coincidentally, on Tuesday as the Cleveland survivors were tasting their first hours of freedom, Dugard was scheduled to speak at an award ceremony. “What an amazing time to be talking about hope,” she told the audience, “with everything that’s happening.”

Hornbeck: Respect and faith

During an interview this past week with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Shawn Hornbeck sported two fresh tattoos on his forearms. One says “respect” and the the other “faith.”

Shawn Hornbeck as he was pictured on a missing person poster from 2002.

They’re the bywords of a 21-year-old who’s been through hell and lived to tell about it.

When he was 11, Hornbeck was kidnapped while riding his bike near his Kirkwood, Missouri, home. For the next four years, he was held captive and sexually abused by a pizzeria manager Michael Devlin. Folks believed him when Devlin presented Shawn as his son.

On December 1, 2005, someone identifying himself as Shawn Devlin of Kirkwood posted a message on a Web site that Shawn’s parents had set up, www.shawnhornbeck.com. It read, “how long are you planing (sic) to look for your son?” Later that day, the same person apparently posted a new message apologizing for the previous one and asking whether it would be OK to write a poem for Shawn Hornbeck.

Two police officers who frequented the pizzeria where Devlin worked ran into him, as he was taking out trash from his apartment, the officers said.


Hornbeck’s advice on life after kidnapping

They asked him about his white truck, which was similar to a vehicle investigators were seeking in the kidnapping of another missing boy, Ben Ownby. Police were disturbed by Devlin’s demeanor, and they alerted the FBI. When investigators returned to Devlin’s apartment, they find not only Shawn, but Ben as well.

More than seven years has passed since Hornbeck regained his freedom.

“My life right now is actually pretty normal,” he told the Post-Dispatch. He’s living with his parents in Richwoods, Missouri, and working a full-time factory job. He’s waiting for the right time to return to college and finish a degree in criminal law. He calls the survival of the Cleveland victims a “miracle.”

Speaking out to offer them support through the media “makes me feel better as a person,” Hornbeck told the paper. He said he wants to “help as much as I can.”

The hardest part of their recovery, Hornbeck said, will be reconnecting. “They’re going to be scared to go out in public for a while.”

“They just gotta know that their family is going to be there for them and there’s nothing to be afraid of.”

Patricia Hearst: ‘In a way, you’ve given up’

Arguably the most infamous abduction of the 1970s targeted newspaper heiress Patricia Hearst. Hearst was a 19-year-old student at UC Berkeley in 1974 when she was kidnapped from her apartment, imprisoned in a closet, sexually assaulted and forced to participate in a bank robbery. She was held for 84 weeks before she and her captors — revolutionaries who called themselves the Symbionese Liberation Army — were arrested by the FBI.

Kidnapped heiress Patricia Hearst, pictured here in 1970, has gone on to act in several Hollywood films.

Related: Hearst talks about life after kidnapping

Hearst was tried, convicted and served 22 months of a 35-year original prison sentence that was commuted by President Jimmy Carter. President Bill Clinton pardoned her in 2001. After prison, Hearst married, had two children, acted in several Hollywood films and won an award with her French bulldog at the 2008 Westminster Dog Show. Now 59, she uses her married name, Patricia Hearst Shaw.

As a captive, “You have been so abused and so robbed of your free will and so frightened that you come to a point that you believe any lie that your abductor has told you,” Hearst told CNN’s Larry King in 2003. “You don’t feel safe. You think that either you will be killed if you reach out for help, or you believe your family will be killed.”

“You’ve, in a way, given up, you’ve absorbed the new identity they’ve given you. You’re surviving — you’re not even doing that — you’re just living while everything else is going on around you,” she said.

She didn’t really feel free, Hearst said, until she faced her abductors in court. Then she “knew for sure that they could never, ever hurt me again.”

Carlina White: Snatched as an infant

Some of the nation’s youngest kidnapping victims may not even realize their dark pasts.

Carlina White, kidnapped from a hospital in 1987, reunited with her family 23 years later.

Before 2011, Atlanta resident Carlina Renae White had no idea that a woman posing as a nurse abducted her at a hospital in New York’s Harlem neighborhood when she was just 3 weeks old. White had always had a nagging feeling that she was raised by a family to which she did not belong, said Ernie Allen from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

White grew suspicious when the woman who raised her could not provide her with a birth certificate. She found her own baby picture on the national center’s website and eventually learned the truth. There was a DNA test, and White reconnected with her biological family in an emotional reunion in January 2011. “I never gave up hope,” White’s grandmother, Elizabeth White, told WABC. “It is like she has been around us all her life. She wasn’t a stranger. She fit right in.”

Related: Snatched after birth, woman reunites with family

Steve Carter was inspired by Carlina White's story, and learned he, too, was an abduction victim.

White’s surprise lead to a similar discovery by Philadelphia software salesman Steve Carter. Carter, who’s in his mid-30s, was adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. White’s story inspired him to check www.missingkids.com, where he was shocked to find his own face in a photo staring back at him. He contacted the Honolulu Police Department and later underwent a DNA test.

Police determined that three decades earlier, Carter’s biological mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn’t return. His biological father Mark Barnes filed a missing persons report.

Carter says he believes Moriarty put him in the Hawaiian orphanage and told authorities his name was Tenzin Amea. CNN could not independently confirm that account.

Related: Adopted man learns sad truth about his childhood

Now Carter knows his birth name: Marx Panama Moriarty Barnes.

It was, as Carter put it, “a happy ending to a story that usually isn’t a happy ending.”

Austrian horrors

Two of the most heinous child abductions in recent years took place in Austria.

 Natascha Kampusch pictured in 2011, just before her 23rd birthday.

In 1998, 10-year-old Natascha Kampusch was abducted while walking to school. Her 2010 autobiography “3,096 Days” describes the relationship she fostered with her abductor Wolfgang Priklopil. Kampusch wrote how she endured Priklopil’s bizarre routines to save her own life.

The book, which was serialized in the UK’s Daily Mail newspaper, details how Kampusch was locked inside a “hermetically sealed” concrete jail.

She wrote about being beaten as many as 200 times a week — until she heard her own spine “snap.”

She recalls how she was manacled to Priklopil while they slept together in his bed.

Kampusch escaped in August 2006 when she was 18. In 2010, she was reportedly living in Vienna. Priklopil, 44, an engineer, committed suicide shortly after Kampusch’s escape.

In the years after her escape, Kampusch became a media personality, appearing on television shows around the world. She worked for a while as a television presenter in Austria in 2007.

Full story: Kampusch details life as ‘domestic slave’

Two years after Kampusch’s escape, the world learned about the fate of Austrian teen captive Elisabeth Fritzl.

In 1984, her own father, Josef Fritzl, threw Elisabeth — then 18 — into a specially designed cellar, said prosecutors. He told other family members Elisabeth had run away to join a cult.

Elisabeth Fritzl's father locked her in the family basement for 24 years.

Josef Fritzl kept his daughter locked in the basement for the next 24 years, authorities believe, repeatedly sexually assaulting her. During that time, he fathered Elisabeth’s seven children.

Fritzl’s dungeon remained secret until April 2008, when Elisabeth’s 19-year-old daughter, Kerstin, became seriously ill and was taken to a hospital. Hospital staff became suspicious and alerted police, who then discovered the cellar.

At a 2009 trial, jurors found Josef Fritzl guilty of rape and imprisonment and sentenced him to life in prison.

Full story: Fritzl jailed for life

Elisabeth Fritzl and her children were given new identities by the state. They also received a pension and and a home in an undisclosed location in rural Austria, according to a report in The Sun.

Katie Beers: Foster family ‘instrumental’

Katie Beers was only 9 in 1992 when neighbor John Esposito kidnapped her and locked her in his Long Island, New York, dungeon.


Katie Beers reacts to Cleveland escape

Esposito imprisoned Beers there for 17 days, sexually assaulting her repeatedly. She was chained by the neck in a locked wooden box suspended above the ground. A television in the corner provided the only distraction and the only light. Her only meals were junk food. Her captor broke down, and she was rescued.

Now a 30-year-old married mother of two living in rural Pennsylvania, Beers reveals details of her ordeal in her autobiography, “Buried Memories: Katie Beers’ Story.”

Beers describes the life of abuse she led before her kidnapping.

“My childhood consisted of enslavement by my godmother and my godmother’s husband,” she told CNN’s Soledad O’Brien. “Not only that,” she continues, “but also sexual abuse by my godmother’s husband; verbal, physical and emotional abuse by both my godmother herself and her husband; and neglect by my mother.”

After her rescue, Beers lived with a foster family, who she says was “instrumental” to her recovery.

“Personally, what my foster parents did for me was they kept me secluded and kept me out of the public eye for so long, and that gave me the ability to recover,” Beers told New York radio station 1010 WINS.

Now that the trauma is behind them, should the three Cleveland survivors look back?

It depends on their personality.

Some, such as Beers, will refuse to speak of it again. “I try not to think about it,” she said. “There’s no point in thinking about the past. I’ve gone through therapy. I’ve said my piece.”

“I tend to believe as a therapist that this is less helpful,” said Bonnie Forrest.

Instead, “you have to come to believe that it wasn’t your fault and that you made the best choices at the time to survive — no matter what that took,” she said. “Survival is something to be proud of — proud that you have those resources — and you go on.”

For Smart, being happy offers the best punishment for her abductor.

“By dwelling on the past and holding on to the pain and the hurt that you’ve had to go through, that’s only allowing him to steal more of your life away from you and he doesn’t deserve that.”

There’s no looking back. She’s facing forward, pointed toward the rest of her life.

CNN’s Ann O’Neill, Nina Melendez, Thair Shaikh, Diana Magnay, Frederik Pleitgen, Sabrina Kahn and Stephanie Elam contributed to this report.


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How do child abductees recover?

May 11th, 2013 No comments


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a href='http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/04/02/ohio.missing.girls/index.html'Amanda Berry/a vanished a few blocks from her Cleveland home on April 21, 2003. She was 16. On Monday, May 6, a href='http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/06/us/ohio-missing-women-found/index.html'she was found /awith two other missing women blocks from where she disappeared. Click through to see more miraculous stories of lost children who were found months or even years later.Amanda Berry vanished a few blocks from her Cleveland home on April 21, 2003. She was 16. On Monday, May 6, she was found with two other missing women blocks from where she disappeared. Click through to see more miraculous stories of lost children who were found months or even years later.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2009/CRIME/04/02/ohio.missing.girls/index.html'Georgina Gina DeJesus/a was found on May 6 with Amanda Berry and Michelle Knight in Cleveland. DeJesus was last seen in the Ohio city on April 2, 2004, on her way home from school. She was 14 when she went missing.Georgina “Gina” DeJesus was found on May 6 with Amanda Berry and Michelle Knight in Cleveland. DeJesus was last seen in the Ohio city on April 2, 2004, on her way home from school. She was 14 when she went missing.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/07/us/ohio-rescued-women-bios/index.html'Michelle Knight/a was thea href='http://www.cnn.com/2013/05/08/us/ohio-rescued-women-timeline/index.html' third of the three women who escaped/a from a captor's house in Cleveland on May 6. She was last seen on August 22, 2002, when she was 21.Michelle Knight was the third of the three women who escaped from a captor’s house in Cleveland on May 6. She was last seen on August 22, 2002, when she was 21.

On June 5, 2002, when a href='http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/05/25/utah.smart.sentencing/index.html'Elizabeth Smart/a was 14, she was abducted from her bed, raped and held captive for nine months by Brian David Mitchell. On May 25, 2011, Mitchell was sentenced to life in prison.On June 5, 2002, when Elizabeth Smart was 14, she was abducted from her bed, raped and held captive for nine months by Brian David Mitchell. On May 25, 2011, Mitchell was sentenced to life in prison.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/europe/09/06/austria.natascha.kampusch.autobiography/index.html'Natascha Kampusch/a, an Austrian woman, was held prisoner in a basement for eight years from the time she was 10. Her abductor, Wolfgang Priklopil, beat her up to 200 times a week, manacled her to him as they slept and forced her to walk around half-naked as a domestic slave after kidnapping her in 1998. Kampusch escaped in August 2006. Priklopil committed suicide shortly thereafter.Natascha Kampusch, an Austrian woman, was held prisoner in a basement for eight years from the time she was 10. Her abductor, Wolfgang Priklopil, beat her up to 200 times a week, manacled her to him as they slept and forced her to walk around half-naked as a domestic slave after kidnapping her in 1998. Kampusch escaped in August 2006. Priklopil committed suicide shortly thereafter.

Eleven-year-old a href='http://www.cnn.com/2011/09/22/justice/california-dugard-government-lawsuit/index.html'Jaycee Lee Dugard/a was abducted in 1991 from outside her home in South Lake Tahoe, California. She was held by Phillip and Nancy Garrido in a hidden compound of sheds along with the two daughters to whom she subsequently gave birth. Dugard and her daughters were found in 2009.Eleven-year-old Jaycee Lee Dugard was abducted in 1991 from outside her home in South Lake Tahoe, California. She was held by Phillip and Nancy Garrido in a hidden compound of sheds along with the two daughters to whom she subsequently gave birth. Dugard and her daughters were found in 2009.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/01/15/missouri.boys/index.html'Shawn Damian Hornbeck /aspent more than four years with Michael Devlin, passing as his captor's son in the St. Louis suburb of Kirkwood, Missouri. Shawn was 15 when he was found in 2007 and reunited with his family. Shawn Damian Hornbeck spent more than four years with Michael Devlin, passing as his captor’s son in the St. Louis suburb of Kirkwood, Missouri. Shawn was 15 when he was found in 2007 and reunited with his family.

a href='http://topics.cnn.com/topics/elisabeth_fritzl' target='_blank'Elisabeth Fritzl/a was imprisoned and raped by her father, Josef Fritzl, for 24 years. Fritzl lured his daughter into the basement in 1984 when she was 18 years old. She had seven of his children. She was released at age 42 after her ill 19-year-old daughter was taken to the hospital and police called the family in for abuse suspicions. In 2009 Josef Fritzla href='http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/03/19/austria.incest.trial.fritzl/index.html#cnnSTCText' was sentenced to life in prison. /aElisabeth Fritzl was imprisoned and raped by her father, Josef Fritzl, for 24 years. Fritzl lured his daughter into the basement in 1984 when she was 18 years old. She had seven of his children. She was released at age 42 after her ill 19-year-old daughter was taken to the hospital and police called the family in for abuse suspicions. In 2009 Josef Fritzl was sentenced to life in prison.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2011/CRIME/01/20/new.york.missing.reunion/index.html' target='_blank'Carlina White/a was abducted in 1987 from a Harlem hospital room. She learned her real identity 23 years later after finding her case online. She contacted the police after finding a baby picture that looked like her baby pictures on a missing children website. She was reconnected with her birth mother in 2011. White said she'd never felt like she belonged to the family who raised her.Carlina White was abducted in 1987 from a Harlem hospital room. She learned her real identity 23 years later after finding her case online. She contacted the police after finding a baby picture that looked like her baby pictures on a missing children website. She was reconnected with her birth mother in 2011. White said she’d never felt like she belonged to the family who raised her.

a href='http://www.cnn.com/2012/04/26/us/pennsylvania-missing-mystery' target='_blank'Steve Carter/a also discovered he was a missing person after an online search. He had been adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. At 35 years old, he heard about White's case and clicked on Missingkids.com and found an age progression photo of himself as an infant. It came to light that biological father, Mark Barnes, reported him missing more than three decades ago after his mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn't return.Steve Carter also discovered he was a missing person after an online search. He had been adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. At 35 years old, he heard about White’s case and clicked on Missingkids.com and found an age progression photo of himself as an infant. It came to light that biological father, Mark Barnes, reported him missing more than three decades ago after his mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn’t return.


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(CNN) — The world will never fully know the unspeakable tortures they endured. But they survived.

Elizabeth Smart was kidnapped from her bedroom at 14, declared a child bride by her captor and sexually assaulted for nine months. Jaycee Dugard, 11, was snatched from a roadside and held for 18 years, eventually bearing two babies fathered by her rapist kidnapper. Taken at 11, Shawn Hornbeck was sexually abused by his abductor for four years before police freed him.

This week in Cleveland, three new names were added to that list of young abduction survivors. After a decade in captivity, Amanda Berry, Georgina “Gina” DeJesus and Michelle Knight now face a challenging journey toward recovery.

Related: Profiles of Berry, DeJesus and Knight


When kidnapped become brainwashed


Kidnapping survivors search for ‘normal’


Kidnapped teen leaves ‘CSI’ clues


How to heal after a kidnapping

What can they learn from the paths followed by Smart, Dugard, Hornbeck and others that led them from darkness to brighter lives?

The resiliency of these survivors is nothing short of remarkable. Smart, now 25, is married. She formed a foundation to battle child abuse and travels the country as a public speaker. Nearly four years after regaining her freedom, Dugard, 33, heads her own group aimed at helping victims like herself. She wrote a book about her ordeal and has learned to ride horseback. Hornbeck, 21, works full-time and wants to finish his education.

Opinion: A survivor’s letter to Amanda, Gina, and Michelle

Experts credit much of their recovery to access to important health care resources and strong family support.

There’s another factor: faith. These survivors likely were more confident that they would re-emerge into a safe world.

“Some of these people have had a considerable amount of faith, and they’ve entered into a community that has been very accepting and welcoming,” said Dr. Wynn Schwartz, a Harvard Medical School psychologist.

Also: time. Smart, Dugard and Hornbeck initially walled themselves off from pesky news reporters, says Dr. Bonny Forrest, a San Diego-based psychologist and attorney. Being “very selective about their interviews allowed them to avoid having to immediately relive and retell” their traumatic experiences. It “allowed them to decompress or let go of their stress in a time period that was appropriate for them.”

But for every survivor of childhood abduction, there are countless cases with endings that will never be known.

According to the FBI, more than half of all missing persons cases in the United States involve children.

Specifically, of all 87,217 active missing persons cases in 2012, the FBI says 47,366 missing people were 20 or younger. That’s 54.3%. Although many are runaways and don’t wish to be found, an unknown number might have been abducted.

At a glance: Missing persons in the U.S.

For young abductees, experts say, survival is a rare thing.

Here are some of their inspiring stories:

Smart: ‘I was marked’

It was late at night inside the bedroom of 14-year-old Elizabeth Smart. A drifter named Brian David Mitchell climbed through a window of her Salt Lake City, Utah, home and put a knife to her throat. He forced her to walk to a nearby campsite, where Mitchell and his wife, Wanda Barzee, “sealed” Smart to him in a brief ceremony and raped her. The couple forced Smart to wander with them from town to town, often keeping her tethered to trees.


Elizabeth Smart: ‘Take it day by day’


Smart endorses child safety program

Nine months after her abduction, police stopped Mitchell, Barzee and Smart as they left a Walmart in Sandy, Utah, just five miles from her family’s home. Smart’s life as a captive was finally over.

“I felt that because of what he had done to me, I was marked,” Smart later testified at Mitchell’s trial. “I wasn’t the same. My personal value had dropped. I was nothing. Another person could never love me.”

Related: Elizabeth Smart: What ifs and near misses

Smart’s fears proved to be unfounded as she leaned on her faith and her family. And this past week, she offered to share what she learned during her recovery with the Cleveland victims.

“Nothing that has happened to them will ever diminish their value,” Smart told CNN’s Wolf Blitzer on Tuesday. “It should never hold them back from doing what they want to do.”

Smart reminded them to “take as much time as they need” to recover before going public with the details of their ordeals.  “And if they decide never to share their stories, that would be OK, too.”

Her remarkable recovery has included co-authoring a Justice Department pamphlet about how to survive abduction. Smart works as a contributor for a national TV news network and she runs a foundation aimed at protecting children from predators.

Last year, Smart married Scotsman Matthew Gilmour, whom she met while they performed missionary work in France for the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

Dugard focuses on hope

In 1991, Jaycee Dugard was a carefree tween walking toward a school bus stop in South Lake Tahoe, California. But when Phillip and Nancy Garrido drove by looking for a victim, 11-year-old Jaycee’s life changed forever.

A picture of Jaycee Dugard before she was kidnapped sits framed in her stepfather's home.

For the next 18 years, Jaycee became a captive at a hidden compound in Antioch, California. Not allowed to say her own name and raped repeatedly, she bore two daughters fathered by Garrido.

“There’s a switch that I had to shut off,” she told ABC News’ Diane Sawyer. “Just went someplace else.” In her book, “A Stolen Life,” Dugard wrote that she survived each day by concentrating on her children and the hope of seeing her mother again.

Her captivity ended in 2009 after two police officers at the University of California, Berkeley, met Garrido and the two daughters and noticed “there was just something about the girls that wasn’t right.” Suspicions after that meeting eventually led to the Garridos’ arrest and freedom for Dugard and her little girls.

“You can endure tough situations and survive,” she wrote in her book. “Not just survive, but be okay even on the inside, too. I’m not sure how I did endure all that I did. … I’m beginning to think that I have secretly known all along.”

Related: Dugard reacts to Cleveland abductions


Dugard: Amazing time to talk about hope

And it was her support network that was key to her recovery. “With the help of my mom and my family, and especially my therapist I have come to realize I can now do things for myself,” Dugard wrote. “I can make my own decisions and not worry about if it’s not what someone else wants.”

Coincidentally, on Tuesday as the Cleveland survivors were tasting their first hours of freedom, Dugard was scheduled to speak at an award ceremony. “What an amazing time to be talking about hope,” she told the audience, “with everything that’s happening.”

Hornbeck: Respect and faith

During an interview this past week with the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Shawn Hornbeck sported two fresh tattoos on his forearms. One says “respect” and the the other “faith.”

Shawn Hornbeck as he was pictured on a missing person poster from 2002.

They’re the bywords of a 21-year-old who’s been through hell and lived to tell about it.

When he was 11, Hornbeck was kidnapped while riding his bike near his Kirkwood, Missouri, home. For the next four years, he was held captive and sexually abused by a pizzeria manager Michael Devlin. Folks believed him when Devlin presented Shawn as his son.

On December 1, 2005, someone identifying himself as Shawn Devlin of Kirkwood posted a message on a Web site that Shawn’s parents had set up, www.shawnhornbeck.com. It read, “how long are you planing (sic) to look for your son?” Later that day, the same person apparently posted a new message apologizing for the previous one and asking whether it would be OK to write a poem for Shawn Hornbeck.

Two police officers who frequented the pizzeria where Devlin worked ran into him, as he was taking out trash from his apartment, the officers said.


Hornbeck’s advice on life after kidnapping

They asked him about his white truck, which was similar to a vehicle investigators were seeking in the kidnapping of another missing boy, Ben Ownby. Police were disturbed by Devlin’s demeanor, and they alerted the FBI. When investigators returned to Devlin’s apartment, they find not only Shawn, but Ben as well.

More than seven years has passed since Hornbeck regained his freedom.

“My life right now is actually pretty normal,” he told the Post-Dispatch. He’s living with his parents in Richwoods, Missouri, and working a full-time factory job. He’s waiting for the right time to return to college and finish a degree in criminal law. He calls the survival of the Cleveland victims a “miracle.”

Speaking out to offer them support through the media “makes me feel better as a person,” Hornbeck told the paper. He said he wants to “help as much as I can.”

The hardest part of their recovery, Hornbeck said, will be reconnecting. “They’re going to be scared to go out in public for a while.”

“They just gotta know that their family is going to be there for them and there’s nothing to be afraid of.”

Patricia Hearst: ‘In a way, you’ve given up’

Arguably the most infamous abduction of the 1970s targeted newspaper heiress Patricia Hearst. Hearst was a 19-year-old student at UC Berkeley in 1974 when she was kidnapped from her apartment, imprisoned in a closet, sexually assaulted and forced to participate in a bank robbery. She was held for 84 weeks before she and her captors — revolutionaries who called themselves the Symbionese Liberation Army — were arrested by the FBI.

Kidnapped heiress Patricia Hearst, pictured here in 1970, has gone on to act in several Hollywood films.

Related: Hearst talks about life after kidnapping

Hearst was tried, convicted and served 22 months of a 35-year original prison sentence that was commuted by President Jimmy Carter. President Bill Clinton pardoned her in 2001. After prison, Hearst married, had two children, acted in several Hollywood films and won an award with her French bulldog at the 2008 Westminster Dog Show. Now 59, she uses her married name, Patricia Hearst Shaw.

As a captive, “You have been so abused and so robbed of your free will and so frightened that you come to a point that you believe any lie that your abductor has told you,” Hearst told CNN’s Larry King in 2003. “You don’t feel safe. You think that either you will be killed if you reach out for help, or you believe your family will be killed.”

“You’ve, in a way, given up, you’ve absorbed the new identity they’ve given you. You’re surviving — you’re not even doing that — you’re just living while everything else is going on around you,” she said.

She didn’t really feel free, Hearst said, until she faced her abductors in court. Then she “knew for sure that they could never, ever hurt me again.”

Carlina White: Snatched as an infant

Some of the nation’s youngest kidnapping victims may not even realize their dark pasts.

Carlina White, kidnapped from a hospital in 1987, reunited with her family 23 years later.

Before 2011, Atlanta resident Carlina Renae White had no idea that a woman posing as a nurse abducted her at a hospital in New York’s Harlem neighborhood when she was just 3 weeks old. White had always had a nagging feeling that she was raised by a family to which she did not belong, said Ernie Allen from the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children.

White grew suspicious when the woman who raised her could not provide her with a birth certificate. She found her own baby picture on the national center’s website and eventually learned the truth. There was a DNA test, and White reconnected with her biological family in an emotional reunion in January 2011. “I never gave up hope,” White’s grandmother, Elizabeth White, told WABC. “It is like she has been around us all her life. She wasn’t a stranger. She fit right in.”

Related: Snatched after birth, woman reunites with family

Steve Carter was inspired by Carlina White's story, and learned he, too, was an abduction victim.

White’s surprise lead to a similar discovery by Philadelphia software salesman Steve Carter. Carter, who’s in his mid-30s, was adopted at age 4 from an orphanage in Honolulu. White’s story inspired him to check www.missingkids.com, where he was shocked to find his own face in a photo staring back at him. He contacted the Honolulu Police Department and later underwent a DNA test.

Police determined that three decades earlier, Carter’s biological mother, Charlotte Moriarty, took him for a walk and didn’t return. His biological father Mark Barnes filed a missing persons report.

Carter says he believes Moriarty put him in the Hawaiian orphanage and told authorities his name was Tenzin Amea. CNN could not independently confirm that account.

Related: Adopted man learns sad truth about his childhood

Now Carter knows his birth name: Marx Panama Moriarty Barnes.

It was, as Carter put it, “a happy ending to a story that usually isn’t a happy ending.”

Austrian horrors

Two of the most heinous child abductions in recent years took place in Austria.

 Natascha Kampusch pictured in 2011, just before her 23rd birthday.

In 1998, 10-year-old Natascha Kampusch was abducted while walking to school. Her 2010 autobiography “3,096 Days” describes the relationship she fostered with her abductor Wolfgang Priklopil. Kampusch wrote how she endured Priklopil’s bizarre routines to save her own life.

The book, which was serialized in the UK’s Daily Mail newspaper, details how Kampusch was locked inside a “hermetically sealed” concrete jail.

She wrote about being beaten as many as 200 times a week — until she heard her own spine “snap.”

She recalls how she was manacled to Priklopil while they slept together in his bed.

Kampusch escaped in August 2006 when she was 18. In 2010, she was reportedly living in Vienna. Priklopil, 44, an engineer, committed suicide shortly after Kampusch’s escape.

In the years after her escape, Kampusch became a media personality, appearing on television shows around the world. She worked for a while as a television presenter in Austria in 2007.

Full story: Kampusch details life as ‘domestic slave’

Two years after Kampusch’s escape, the world learned about the fate of Austrian teen captive Elisabeth Fritzl.

In 1984, her own father, Josef Fritzl, threw Elisabeth — then 18 — into a specially designed cellar, said prosecutors. He told other family members Elisabeth had run away to join a cult.

Elisabeth Fritzl's father locked her in the family basement for 24 years.

Josef Fritzl kept his daughter locked in the basement for the next 24 years, authorities believe, repeatedly sexually assaulting her. During that time, he fathered Elisabeth’s seven children.

Fritzl’s dungeon remained secret until April 2008, when Elisabeth’s 19-year-old daughter, Kerstin, became seriously ill and was taken to a hospital. Hospital staff became suspicious and alerted police, who then discovered the cellar.

At a 2009 trial, jurors found Josef Fritzl guilty of rape and imprisonment and sentenced him to life in prison.

Full story: Fritzl jailed for life

Elisabeth Fritzl and her children were given new identities by the state. They also received a pension and and a home in an undisclosed location in rural Austria, according to a report in The Sun.

Katie Beers: Foster family ‘instrumental’

Katie Beers was only 9 in 1992 when neighbor John Esposito kidnapped her and locked her in his Long Island, New York, dungeon.


Katie Beers reacts to Cleveland escape

Esposito imprisoned Beers there for 17 days, sexually assaulting her repeatedly. She was chained by the neck in a locked wooden box suspended above the ground. A television in the corner provided the only distraction and the only light. Her only meals were junk food. Her captor broke down, and she was rescued.

Now a 30-year-old married mother of two living in rural Pennsylvania, Beers reveals details of her ordeal in her autobiography, “Buried Memories: Katie Beers’ Story.”

Beers describes the life of abuse she led before her kidnapping.

“My childhood consisted of enslavement by my godmother and my godmother’s husband,” she told CNN’s Soledad O’Brien. “Not only that,” she continues, “but also sexual abuse by my godmother’s husband; verbal, physical and emotional abuse by both my godmother herself and her husband; and neglect by my mother.”

After her rescue, Beers lived with a foster family, who she says was “instrumental” to her recovery.

“Personally, what my foster parents did for me was they kept me secluded and kept me out of the public eye for so long, and that gave me the ability to recover,” Beers told New York radio station 1010 WINS.

Now that the trauma is behind them, should the three Cleveland survivors look back?

It depends on their personality.

Some, such as Beers, will refuse to speak of it again. “I try not to think about it,” she said. “There’s no point in thinking about the past. I’ve gone through therapy. I’ve said my piece.”

“I tend to believe as a therapist that this is less helpful,” said Bonnie Forrest.

Instead, “you have to come to believe that it wasn’t your fault and that you made the best choices at the time to survive — no matter what that took,” she said. “Survival is something to be proud of — proud that you have those resources — and you go on.”

For Smart, being happy offers the best punishment for her abductor.

“By dwelling on the past and holding on to the pain and the hurt that you’ve had to go through, that’s only allowing him to steal more of your life away from you and he doesn’t deserve that.”

There’s no looking back. She’s facing forward, pointed toward the rest of her life.

CNN’s Ann O’Neill, Nina Melendez, Thair Shaikh, Diana Magnay, Frederik Pleitgen, Sabrina Kahn and Stephanie Elam contributed to this report.


Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/11/justice/other-kidnapping-survivors/index.html?eref=edition

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Why Syria’s war is looking more dangerous

May 10th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

jpg” alt=”A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.” border=”0″ height=”360″ id=”articleGalleryPhoto00103″ width=”640″ /A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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(CNN) — While the world’s attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase — one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.

What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.

Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence — let alone control — the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States “plunging into the killing fields of Syria … because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict.”

Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to “inherit” Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.

And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.

For Syrian Shiites, civil war isn’t simply rebels vs. government


Syrian opposition: Russia changed stance


Obama takes aim at Syria, North Korea


A war wary village


Difficulty of proving chemical weapons

Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: “There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia’s anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.

And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.

Kerry announces more aid to Syria

Given that background, here are five reasons Syria’s war suddenly looks more dangerous.

1: Israel and Hezbollah’s proxy war

For two years, Israel has looked on with growing anxiety as brutal repression in Syria has become de facto civil war. Now a high-octane game of regional poker is under way. The Israelis have not admitted carrying out the devastating strikes of last week, but U.S. officials tell CNN they have no doubt Israel was responsible.

Why would Israel suddenly become an active participant? While much has been said about President Barack Obama’s “red line” — that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make him reassess U.S. involvement — the Israelis have a different threshold: the transfer of advanced missiles to al-Assad’s ally, the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

Their main worry, U.S. officials say, was the possible transfer of Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles, whose accuracy would pose a new threat to Israel. A consignment of these ballistic missiles had recently arrived at Damascus’ airport. Similarly, the second Israeli strike before dawn Sunday was on a “research facility” near Damascus where weapons destined for Hezbollah were kept.

According to Jane’s Intelligence, Iran’s Defense Ministry reported the test firing of an upgraded Fateh-110 last year, and the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization claimed it had a range in excess of 180 miles (300 kilometers.)

Israel’s motive was not to degrade the Syrian military. It was about sending al-Assad a message (copied to Iran and Hezbollah): “If you try to raise the regional stakes by passing a new generation of short-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, the response will be swift and severe.”

Gerges, author of “Obama and the Middle East,” told CNN that we are seeing “an open-ended war by proxy. … On the one hand you have Israel, regional powers and the Western states; on the other hand you have Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.”

Is Syrian war escalating to wider conflict?

Middle East analyst Juan Cole agrees, writing on his blog: “It is not that the Israelis and Hezbollah are in any direct conflict, but they are gradually both becoming more active in Syria on opposite sides. It is an open question how long this process can continue before the conflict does become direct.”

One miscalculation could provoke a wider escalation.

The stakes for Hezbollah are enormous. For nearly 30 years, it has been sustained by Iranian and Syrian support. If Syria becomes a Sunni-dominated state, Hezbollah’s “rear-base” vanishes, and suddenly it looks more vulnerable to its archenemy Israel, one of whose strategic goals is to counter the growing missile threat from the north.


See destruction from airstrikes in Syria


Syria’s battle of the textbooks


Israel bolsters defense near Syria

Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.

Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime’s battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the “Zionist enemy.”

Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that “Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors.”

But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.

2: More than ever, it’s sectarian

In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.

Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition’s political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.

The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing “irregular” Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria’s (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.

The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that “Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city.”

He warned of “massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas.”

Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that “regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children.”

3: Al-Assad goes for broke?

After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha — loyalists with an existential stake in the regime’s survival.

As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: “The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country.”

Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that “if we can’t control it nor shall you.” To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.

As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.

Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it’s another way of strangling the regime’s ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah’s access to Syria.

The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels’ hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.

Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad’s hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a “no-move” zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.

In essence, that’s what NATO’s mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: “The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources” than in Libya.

4: Chemical Weapons

For much of last year, Obama’s “red line” seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad’s situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?

The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it “has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict.”

Establishing “custody” and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.

A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: “We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening.”

But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria’s massive stockpiles — and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.

In Cordesman’s view, “Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving.”

5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan

Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most — and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia — are backing their own factions as well as supporting the “government-in-waiting.” Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.

Iraq’s beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.

For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.

In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, “Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies” of the Gulf.

Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more “Balkanized” Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.

“You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can’t show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths,” he told an audience over the weekend.

But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey “now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man’s-land on its doorstep.”

The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees — equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population — growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.

Lebanon — whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria — cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah’s growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.

A land of bad options

Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the “shameful” failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.

But Cordesman writes: “Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening.”

And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even “a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq.”

With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.

The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.

“The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.


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Why Syria is looking more dangerous

May 10th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

jpg” alt=”A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.” border=”0″ height=”360″ id=”articleGalleryPhoto00103″ width=”640″ /A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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(CNN) — While the world’s attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase — one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.

What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.

Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence — let alone control — the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States “plunging into the killing fields of Syria … because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict.”

Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to “inherit” Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.

And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.

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A war wary village


Difficulty of proving chemical weapons

Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: “There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia’s anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.

And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.

Kerry announces more aid to Syria

Given that background, here are five reasons Syria’s war suddenly looks more dangerous.

1: Israel and Hezbollah’s proxy war

For two years, Israel has looked on with growing anxiety as brutal repression in Syria has become de facto civil war. Now a high-octane game of regional poker is under way. The Israelis have not admitted carrying out the devastating strikes of last week, but U.S. officials tell CNN they have no doubt Israel was responsible.

Why would Israel suddenly become an active participant? While much has been said about President Barack Obama’s “red line” — that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make him reassess U.S. involvement — the Israelis have a different threshold: the transfer of advanced missiles to al-Assad’s ally, the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

Their main worry, U.S. officials say, was the possible transfer of Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles, whose accuracy would pose a new threat to Israel. A consignment of these ballistic missiles had recently arrived at Damascus’ airport. Similarly, the second Israeli strike before dawn Sunday was on a “research facility” near Damascus where weapons destined for Hezbollah were kept.

According to Jane’s Intelligence, Iran’s Defense Ministry reported the test firing of an upgraded Fateh-110 last year, and the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization claimed it had a range in excess of 180 miles (300 kilometers.)

Israel’s motive was not to degrade the Syrian military. It was about sending al-Assad a message (copied to Iran and Hezbollah): “If you try to raise the regional stakes by passing a new generation of short-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, the response will be swift and severe.”

Gerges, author of “Obama and the Middle East,” told CNN that we are seeing “an open-ended war by proxy. … On the one hand you have Israel, regional powers and the Western states; on the other hand you have Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.”

Is Syrian war escalating to wider conflict?

Middle East analyst Juan Cole agrees, writing on his blog: “It is not that the Israelis and Hezbollah are in any direct conflict, but they are gradually both becoming more active in Syria on opposite sides. It is an open question how long this process can continue before the conflict does become direct.”

One miscalculation could provoke a wider escalation.

The stakes for Hezbollah are enormous. For nearly 30 years, it has been sustained by Iranian and Syrian support. If Syria becomes a Sunni-dominated state, Hezbollah’s “rear-base” vanishes, and suddenly it looks more vulnerable to its archenemy Israel, one of whose strategic goals is to counter the growing missile threat from the north.


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Israel bolsters defense near Syria

Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.

Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime’s battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the “Zionist enemy.”

Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that “Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors.”

But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.

2: More than ever, it’s sectarian

In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.

Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition’s political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.

The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing “irregular” Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria’s (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.

The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that “Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city.”

He warned of “massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas.”

Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that “regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children.”

3: Al-Assad goes for broke?

After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha — loyalists with an existential stake in the regime’s survival.

As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: “The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country.”

Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that “if we can’t control it nor shall you.” To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.

As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.

Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it’s another way of strangling the regime’s ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah’s access to Syria.

The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels’ hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.

Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad’s hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a “no-move” zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.

In essence, that’s what NATO’s mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: “The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources” than in Libya.

4: Chemical Weapons

For much of last year, Obama’s “red line” seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad’s situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?

The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it “has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict.”

Establishing “custody” and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.

A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: “We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening.”

But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria’s massive stockpiles — and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.

In Cordesman’s view, “Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving.”

5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan

Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most — and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia — are backing their own factions as well as supporting the “government-in-waiting.” Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.

Iraq’s beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.

For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.

In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, “Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies” of the Gulf.

Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more “Balkanized” Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.

“You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can’t show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths,” he told an audience over the weekend.

But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey “now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man’s-land on its doorstep.”

The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees — equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population — growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.

Lebanon — whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria — cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah’s growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.

A land of bad options

Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the “shameful” failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.

But Cordesman writes: “Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening.”

And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even “a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq.”

With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.

The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.

“The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.


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Why Syria is growing more dangerous

May 9th, 2013 No comments


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Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday. A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Syria's Raqqa province, on May 3.People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria's Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria's national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the Popular Protection Units (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8.The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a sniper alley near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

za.net/wp-content/plugins/rss-poster/cache/9098c_7cfc6_120716083532-syria-unrest-08-horizontal-gallery.jpg” alt=”Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.” border=”0″ height=”360″ id=”articleGalleryPhoto00102″ width=”640″ /Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the Day of Rage demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.


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(CNN) — While the world’s attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase — one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.

What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.

Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence — let alone control — the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States “plunging into the killing fields of Syria … because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict.”


Syrian opposition: Russia changed stance


Obama takes aim at Syria, North Korea


A war wary village

Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to “inherit” Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.

And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.

Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: “There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia’s anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.

And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.

Given that background, here are five reasons Syria’s war suddenly looks more dangerous.

1: Israel and Hezbollah’s proxy war

For two years, Israel has looked on with growing anxiety as brutal repression in Syria has become de facto civil war. Now a high-octane game of regional poker is under way. The Israelis have not admitted carrying out the devastating strikes of last week, but U.S. officials tell CNN they have no doubt Israel was responsible.

Why would Israel suddenly become an active participant? While much has been said about President Barack Obama’s “red line” — that the use of chemical weapons in Syria would make him reassess U.S. involvement — the Israelis have a different threshold: the transfer of advanced missiles to al-Assad’s ally, the Shiite Lebanese militia Hezbollah.

Their main worry, U.S. officials say, was the possible transfer of Iranian-made Fateh-110 missiles, whose accuracy would pose a new threat to Israel. A consignment of these ballistic missiles had recently arrived at Damascus’ airport. Similarly, the second Israeli strike before dawn Sunday was on a “research facility” near Damascus where weapons destined for Hezbollah were kept.

According to Jane’s Intelligence, Iran’s Defense Ministry reported the test firing of an upgraded Fateh-110 last year, and the Iranian Aerospace Industries Organization claimed it had a range in excess of 180 miles (300 kilometers.)


See destruction from airstrikes in Syria


Syria’s battle of the textbooks


Israel bolsters defense near Syria

Israel’s motive was not to degrade the Syrian military. It was about sending al-Assad a message (copied to Iran and Hezbollah): “If you try to raise the regional stakes by passing a new generation of short-range ballistic missiles to Hezbollah, the response will be swift and severe.”

Gerges, author of “Obama and the Middle East,” told CNN that we are seeing “an open-ended war by proxy. … On the one hand you have Israel, regional powers and the Western states; on the other hand you have Iran, Hezbollah and Syria.”

Middle East analyst Juan Cole agrees, writing on his blog: “It is not that the Israelis and Hezbollah are in any direct conflict, but they are gradually both becoming more active in Syria on opposite sides. It is an open question how long this process can continue before the conflict does become direct.”

One miscalculation could provoke a wider escalation.

The stakes for Hezbollah are enormous. For nearly 30 years, it has been sustained by Iranian and Syrian support. If Syria becomes a Sunni-dominated state, Hezbollah’s “rear-base” vanishes, and suddenly it looks more vulnerable to its archenemy Israel, one of whose strategic goals is to counter the growing missile threat from the north.

Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.

Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime’s battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the “Zionist enemy.”

Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that “Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors.”

But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.

2: More than ever, it’s sectarian

In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.

Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition’s political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.

The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing “irregular” Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria’s (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.

The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that “Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city.”

He warned of “massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas.”

Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that “regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children.”

3: Al-Assad goes for broke?

After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha — loyalists with an existential stake in the regime’s survival.

As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: “The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country.”

Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that “if we can’t control it nor shall you.” To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.

As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.

Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it’s another way of strangling the regime’s ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah’s access to Syria.

The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels’ hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.

Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad’s hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a “no-move” zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.

In essence, that’s what NATO’s mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: “The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources” than in Libya.

4: Chemical Weapons

For much of last year, Obama’s “red line” seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad’s situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?

The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it “has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict.”

Establishing “custody” and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.

A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: “We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening.”

But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria’s massive stockpiles — and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.

In Cordesman’s view, “Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving.”

5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan

Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most — and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia — are backing their own factions as well as supporting the “government-in-waiting.” Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.

Iraq’s beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.

For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.

In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, “Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies” of the Gulf.

Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more “Balkanized” Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.

“You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can’t show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths,” he told an audience over the weekend.

But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey “now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man’s-land on its doorstep.”

The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees — equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population — growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.

Lebanon — whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria — cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah’s growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.

A land of bad options

Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the “shameful” failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.

But Cordesman writes: “Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening.”

And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even “a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq.”

With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.

The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.

“The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.


Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/08/world/meast/syria-more-dangerous/index.html?eref=edition

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Are we ready for Gen Y leaders?

May 9th, 2013 No comments


The rise of women into positions of power will create a

(CNN) — The global talent war is heating up as baby boomers begin their mass exodus from the workforce. But a new report reveals employers are not prepared for the new generation of emotionally intelligent, ethnically diverse workers.

“After the Baby Boomers, The Next Generation of Leadership” reveals what the next two decades of the global workforce will look like, as those born after the war make way for the so-called X and Y generations.

Organizations that fail to prepare for the evolution of the workforce “do so at their peril,” the report, from executive recruitment firm Odgers Berndtson and Cass Business School, found.

Read more: From James Bond to the boardroom

The report drew on surveys of 100 senior executives across 19 countries, and 24 nationalities, between 2010 and 2012.


Baby boomers and social technology

Cliff Oswick,deputy dean of Cass Business School, said the “rock star” approach to chief executive leadership which has been prevalent in recent years will no longer work.

Oswick, speaking during the report’s launch in London Wednesday, pointed to different types of corporate structures, such as citizen-centric and servant leadership, as models for the future.

According to the report, the rise of women into positions of power will create a “feminization” of leadership which will be reflected in the increasing importance of emotional intelligence, people skills and flexibility.

The importance of the BRIC nations and other emerging markets will also ensure more culturally diverse workers are employed around the world.

Read more: Can you land a job with 140 characters?

This, the report found, will mean knowledge of other languages will become more important. However, English is cementing itself as the language of business, with executives regarding fluency for non-native speakers more important than native speakers speaking a foreign language.

According to Oswick, the demands of the X and Y generations are aligned to the skill-set of female leadershipstyles. However he noted high-flying corporate women of today’s world are not necessarily showing more feminine attributes, such as emotional intelligence and aversion to risk.

Oswick said the shift in leadership styles that generations X and Y will bring was yet to flow through to workplaces. Ingrained discrimination against woman in remained an issue, he added.

The generational change mean executives seek a new crop of leaders who can inspire others “across geographic and age barriers,” and who were comfortable with uncertainty as well as being curious, educated, well read and traveled.

The report noted: “This list makes sense: emotional intelligence and flexibility are essential skills in an environment where generations, cultures and gender are all in flux.”

Read more: Are you cautious or courageous?

However, the new generation is also focused on work and life balance, rather than just corporate progression. This attitude can be seen particularly with working women, who want to be intellectually stimulated and valued as part of a team, the report found. This desire was more prevalent than pushing through a perceived glass ceiling.

One of the interviewees noted: “In general we are nurturing individuals, while the baby boomers are more generalists.”

The biggest single challenge will be recruitment, as the world’s population ages and companies seek specialists in fields such as technology.

However, the report reveals only 41% of the respondents believe organizations are ready for the changes the influx of X and Y generation leaders will bring to the workforce.

One respondent said the company was “actively trying to get in front of the change and lead.” However, “I find it difficult to say that we are ready. I doubt many organizations are.”

The report suggests organizations should ease the transition by allowing senior executives to use the last years of their career to mentor up-and-coming leaders. Respondents were split on whether a move away from full executive responsibilities should mean a reduction in pay.

Organizations should also adapt to the different mind-sets of the new generations, who looks for a work and life balance and the opportunity to work smarter rather than harder. Flattening the organizational structure and ensuring companies are culturally aware will be vital, the report said.


Article source: http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/08/business/workplace-baby-boomers-exodus/index.html?eref=edition

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