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Editor’s note: H. Gilbert Welch is a professor of medicine at the Dartmouth Institute for Health Policy and Clinical Practice and a co-author of “Overdiagnosed: Making People Sick in the Pursuit of Health.”

(CNN) — I first saw the headline early Tuesday on Real Clear Politics, a political news site where I generally start my morning. It’s not where I expect to see a story on breast cancer.

Then I checked my e-mail messages — they all seemed to be about Angelina Jolie’s op-ed. Students in my undergraduate class wanted to discuss it in our next session. Colleagues expressed concern and wondered what the right response was. People I don’t even know sent e-mails.

One, from a research fellow at the International Agency for Research on Cancer, nicely summed up the general concern: “I fear that this disclosure will motivate other women to undergo preventive mastectomy, even though they do not need it.”

Wow. Maybe I should read it.

I did. I found it to be a moving story and understood her choice. What I couldn’t understand initially was the concern expressed by others.

As the day wore on, the story dominated the news. I didn’t fully appreciate how much Ms. Jolie is admired and respected and had neglected to consider just how powerful a celebrity personal anecdote could be.

If American women saw themselves in Angelina Jolie — then that would be a problem. Because the logical next question is: Should I get a preventive mastectomy?

Then I realized something was missing in her piece; something that should have been printed in big black letters:

NOTE: This story is not relevant to more than 99% of American women.

Angelina Jolie reveals double mastectomy

CNN anchor: I have breast cancer

Support pours in for Angelina Jolie

Why? Because more than 99% of women do not have BRCA1 — or BRCA2, for that matter.

Mogadishu, Somalia (CNN) — In a classroom tucked away from the world in Somalia’s capital, Mogadishu, students practice spelling.

Ranging in age from 6 to 11, these girls all have one thing in common: They have either been raped or suffered through the rape of a loved one.

Even the 6-year-old is a rape survivor. The baby of the class, she can’t quite keep up with the spelling lesson but is happy to clap along.

Next door, in the clinic adjoining the class, a 7-year-old boy and his mother are in for a checkup.

The mother was raped and then watched, helpless, as her son was molested.

Tackling sexual violence in Somalia

Sexual crimes a crisis in Somalia

Too afraid to seek help, she did what she thought would help: washed her son’s wounds with hot water and salt for four excruciating days until they were found and brought here.

The classroom and clinic are both part of the Elman Peace and Human Rights Center. Founded in 2011, it is the first rape crisis center in Somalia.

Today, the center has bases both in and outside Mogadishu, providing a haven for the spiraling number of Somali victims of sexual violence.

The figures are horrifying, with at least 1,700 women raped in camps for internally displaced people last year in Mogadishu, according to United Nations figures.

The Elman Peace and Human Rights Center was founded by the parents of Ilwad Elman in the 1990s to help child soldiers, but it closed down after her father was assassinated by warlords, forcing the rest of the family to seek refuge in Canada.

Eventually, she and her mother returned, and in 2011, the center reopened with a new focus: helping the victims of sexual violence.

For the safety of the Elman center’s staff and the victims it helps, CNN agreed not to reveal the location of the centers it visited.

Rape isn’t just happening in the camps for those forced from their homes by fighting, Ilwad Elman told CNN, but in the wider community, “which is also affected by rampant abuse of sexual and gender-based violence.”

Elman says she believes a multitude of factors are to blame, but the chief one is conflict — something that has affected every Somali during more than two decades of war.

“Rape is a well-known weapon of war, so that is one thing that is undeniable,” said Elman. “There’s also harmful traditional practices. There’s also the destroyed social protection structures that were in place” but were destroyed by conflict, she adds.

Put all these factors together, she said, and “that is why rape is so indiscriminate” in Somalia.

Social stigma

For the first time in decades, there is reason for optimism in Somalia, thanks in part to the country’s newly appointed and popular president, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, and increased security in much of the country.

But the plight of Somalia’s women has seen little improvement.

While the center’s staff has gained some idea of the number of cases of sexual violence in Mogadishu and its surrounding area, little is known about the scale of the problem further afield.

Rape in Somalia carries huge social stigma, and after the long years of conflict, there is no way of knowing how many women are suffering in silence.

When the new president was appointed last year, his public commitment to punishing those guilty of sexual offenses had an immediate impact, said Elman.

But those advances have been undone, she said, by events since.

In February, Lul Ali Osman Barake made headlines when she reported her rape at the hands of men she says were government soldiers.

They took turns raping her, she told CNN, only stopping when they thought she was dead. But when she reported the crime, it was Barake who was arrested and convicted of defaming a government institution.

Eventually, she was freed after a huge international outcry, but she says her attackers have yet to face justice.

And, like many of the women CNN spoke to, she has no faith they ever will.

The United Nations says 70% of the rapes perpetrated in Somalia are carried out by men in military uniforms.

Somali Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon admits there’s a problem but insists that it is being addressed.

“There’s been no effective government in Somalia for such a long time, and people are disorganized … but now we are organizing, and I think we’ll disconnect … from the past,” he told CNN. “We are doing everything possible, we are taking every step to ensure that women and girls are safe.

“We have nominated a new commissioner, judiciary reforms, and … we are constituting a new policy for making our women and children safer than ever.”

‘Underground network’ of women

But women’s rights activists say the damage might already have been done.

“I think it’s become a lot harder for women to report rape,” said Elman. “One clear message was sent to them: that if you do report a rape, there’s as much of a chance of you ending up in jail as a perpetrator. It has not only become harder for women who are a survivor of rape to report it, but also people working with these people to work towards ending or responding to sexual violence.

“There was a very dramatic decline in the figures for the last three months. I think it was nearly 60%.”

With public information limited and the stigma against speaking out so strong, the center has created “almost an underground network of women” to spread the word about its work, said Elman.

Some women who have been supported by the center go on to help others, letting them know through word of mouth that these services exist. Other women find their own way there or meet center staff out in the community, she said.

What makes the situation worse is that often, the same woman is raped repeatedly, by different perpetrators, said Elman.

The center can help the woman each time, but “without the government’s support and putting in place mechanisms to protect these people, there will be no end to this impunity,” she said.

Hawa, who agreed to talk to CNN as long as a pseudonym was used to conceal her identity, told how after being raped she fled her home for what she thought was a new beginning in another part of town.

In her new home — and in spite of being pregnant with the first rapist’s baby, she says — she was attacked again.

She, like Barake, has no hope that justice will ever be done.

Make the perpetrators ‘bear that burden’

The United Nations is due to send in a British-funded team of experts on sexual violence to help the Somali government establish protection mechanisms.

Delegates at an international donor conference, held this month in London by the UK and Somali governments, pledged to work together to tackle sexual violence. The issue will also be on the agenda at the G8 leaders’ summit to be hosted by the United Kingdom in June.

But it will take time and money to bring about change in a country that has so many pressing needs.

Matt Baugh, UK ambassador to Somalia, told CNN that there were “no guarantees,” but the involvement of international partners should improve the chances of Somalia living up to its commitments on sexual violence.

“What needs to happen practically (is) to redress the balance, to turn this from a stigma of shame where the survivors, the victims of these horrible attacks, bear that burden, to one where it’s the perpetrators who feel ashamed about it,” he said.

There is now a realization, he said, of the “huge, huge problem facing the country as a whole, as well as women and girls,” but it will take time to make the necessary changes to tackle sexual violence.

These include better documentation of such crimes; reforming the security sector, so that the army and police come under greater government control and win people’s confidence; and reforming the judiciary so that ordinary Somali families believe in the justice system, he said.

“We’ve got the opportunity for the first time in 20 years, based on Somali leadership and their compelling vision, to chart a way forward,” he added.

“I think that this newfound stability and these new steps that have been made by Somalia, that the entire world is celebrating, because it is, indeed, worth celebrating, … has to be something that everybody has access to,” said Elman, in Mogadishu.

“We need to make sure that women are in this human space where we are moving forward.”

For the moment, though, Somalia’s women are relying on themselves — and each other — to rebuild their lives as best they can.

(CNN) — Tropical Cyclone Mahasen jogged northward Thursday prior to striking the coast of Bangladesh, averting the widespread disaster that government authorities had prepared for.

Still, at least 12 people were killed, thousands of thatched houses were damaged and trees uprooted, the state news agency said.

“The situation is turning normal and the people have started returning home after some 200,000 people took overnight refuge at cyclone shelters at Barisal Division,” divisional commissioner of Barisal Mohammad Nurul Amin told Bangladesh Sangbad Sangstha (BSS).

“The damage was not that much what we feared, and people who took shelters have already started moving to their houses as the weather is becoming almost normal,” he said.

Bangladeshi authorities had relocated hundreds of thousands of people in vulnerable areas to safer ground ahead of the storm’s arrival.

A man works on a tent after arriving at a camp for internally displaced people in the village of Mansi, Myanmar, on Friday, May 17. Safety concerns prompted authorities and relief agencies to try to relocate tens of thousands at these makeshift camps as Tropical Cyclone Mahasen neared. At least 12 deaths have been reported in nearby Bangladesh due to the cyclone.

Families load their belongings onto a truck before returning to a temporary relief camp at a mosque in Thetkaepyin, Myanmar, on May 17.

Members of a displaced Rohingya Muslim family rest at a camp outside Sittwe, Myanmar, on Thursday, May 16, as heavy rains and strong winds from Tropical Cyclone Mahasen lash coastal areas.

A group of Rohingya families wait for rice supplies at a temporary relief camp near Sittwe on May 16.

Rohingya family members board a truck with their belongings as they prepare to move from tents to a safer area on May 16.

Rohingya men dismantle their tent as they prepare to move to a safer area on May 16.

Rohingya men pack their belongings as they get ready for the move on May 16.

Bangladeshis pull a boat away from a beachfront in Chittagong on May 16 as Tropical Cyclone Mahasen approached.

Bangladeshi fishermen tie up their vessels in the Chittagong Harbor on Wednesday, May 15.

Fishing boats are tied up in Chittagong on May 15. The storm is forecast to make landfall late Thursday or early Friday in southeastern Bangladesh, near the port city of Chittagong.

Bangladeshi evacuees head toward shelters on May 15 in Cox’s Bazar.

Women pass time in a Rohingya displacement camp outside Sittwe, Myanmar, on May 15. Authorities and relief agencies have been relocating tens of thousands of internally displaced people at camps throughout the low-lying region.

Displaced Rohingyas dig a drainage ditch around a relief tent at the Ohnedaw camp on the outskirts of Sittwe on May 15. Rohingya people are a stateless Muslim minority who suffered during decades of military rule in Myanmar.

A Rohingya child has breakfast inside a relief tent at the Ohnedaw camp on May 15.

A man fixes his tent on May 15 at the Ohnedaw camp.

A Muslim family rests in their temporary shelter outside Sittwe on May 15.

Children pump water at the Ohnedaw camp near Sittwe on May 15.

Thandawli villagers stand by the bank of a river in a displacement camp outside Sittwe on Tuesday, May 14.

Police officers walk in the rain as they guard a Rohingya displacement camp outside Sittwe on May 14. Efforts to relocate some of the displaced appeared to be hindered by distrust of the security forces involved.

A woman from the Thandawli village walks through the rain in a Rohingya displacement camp outside Sittwe on May 14.

jpg” width=”640″ height=”360″ alt=”A boy from Thandawli shelters himself from the rain in the Rohingya camp near Sittwe on May 14.” border=”0″ /A boy from Thandawli shelters himself from the rain in the Rohingya camp near Sittwe on May 14.

Young men play soccer on the beach in Sittwe on May 14.

Muslim Rohingya women sit inside a tent at the Mansi displacement camp in Sittwe on May 14.

A boy dismantles his tent near Sittwe before moving to safer ground on Monday, May 13, in light of the approaching cyclone.

A man sits inside a tent that he has turned into a makeshift shop at a displacement camp for Muslims outside Sittwe on May 13.

A storm lights up the sky above the Yangon River in Myanmar early on May 13.

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Photos: Tropical Cyclone Mahasen

Cyclone Mahasen displaces thousands

CNN Explains: Tropical cyclones

The storm’s strongest gusts reached 90 kph (56 mph), weaker than a hurricane, BSS said.

Authorities had suspended port activities at Chittagong, a major transport and commercial hub, and canceled all flights to and from the city’s airport.

The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs had warned that Mahasen could put millions of people in the surrounding region at risk.

On Wednesday, aid agencies and local authorities scrambled to prepare residents and to put emergency supplies in position.

Bangladeshi authorities relocated at least half a million people from the coastal districts of southeastern Bangladesh, the top administrative officer of Chittagong Division said.

Authorities prepared thousands of buildings as cyclone shelters.

The OCHA put the number of people ordered to relocate by the Bangladeshi government at 1 million nationwide.

There was reason for the caution: In 1970, Cyclone Bhola killed some 400,000 people, according to the OCHA. Cyclone Sidr killed nearly 4,000 people in 2007, and Cyclone Aila killed about 200 people in 2009.

A vulnerable group in Myanmar

Relocation efforts have also proved challenging in Myanmar’s western state of Rakhine, which borders Bangladesh.

On Rakhine’s coast, Myanmar authorities and relief agencies worked to relocate tens of thousands of Muslims who had been living in makeshift camps in low-lying areas since last year, when their homes were destroyed in sectarian violence.

Most of them are Rohingya, a stateless Muslim minority who suffered during decades of military rule in Myanmar.

Sectarian violence erupted last year in Rakhine between Buddhists and Muslims, resulting in the deaths of scores of people, most of them Rohingya. Since then, more than 100,000 Muslims have been forced to live in camps.

In a report last month, the advocacy group Human Rights Watch accused Myanmar authorities of involvement in a Buddhist campaign of “ethnic cleansing” against the Rohingya in Rakhine. The Myanmar government dismissed the report as “one-sided.”

The efforts to relocate some of the displaced Rohingya living in the camps appear to have been hindered by distrust of the security forces involved.

On Monday night, a boat ferrying people from one camp in Rakhine to safer areas hit rocks and capsized, the OCHA said, citing the government. Fifty-eight people were missing and an unspecified number died, the agency said.

CNN’s Brian Walker and journalist Farid Ahmed contributed to this report.

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) — Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister whose government was overthrown by a military coup more than a decade ago, appears to be back on top in Pakistan, election officials have said, despite claims by other parties of vote rigging.

According to unofficial results disclosed Sunday from the country’s violence-marred elections over the weekend, Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), looks to have won most of the seats in the National Assembly.

One of the country’s leading industrialists and richest men, Sharif has been prime minister twice before and was overthrown in a coup when Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. Sharif was subsequently jailed before going into exile in Saudi Arabia. He returned to Pakistan in 2007.

Supporters of politician Imran Khan shout slogans over allegations of election fraud during a protest in Hyderabad, Pakistan, on Monday, May 13. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif appears to be back on top in Pakistan, election officials have said, despite claims by other parties of vote rigging during parliamentary elections on May 11.

Khan’s supporters stage a protest in Karachi on Sunday. Khan said his party would submit a report on alleged vote-rigging.

Supporters of Imran Khan shout slogans during a protest on May 12. Across the country, 29 people were killed in Election Day violence on May 11.

Khan supporters carry their party flags in a rally in Rawalpindi on May 12.

Supporters of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s party, celebrate election results in front of a party office in Lahore on election night, Saturday, May 11.

Sharif’s supporters celebrate May 11 in Lahore.

Soldiers cordon off the site of a bomb explosion in Karachi on Saturday, May 11. Four blasts hit Karachi as people voted, causing 14 deaths and dozens of injuries.

A bomb disposal expert examines the site of a detonation in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Men move a stretcher carrying an injured man at a hospital, following a bomb explosion in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Volunteers move an injured boy to a hospital following a bomb explosion in Karachi on May 11.

Volunteers gather beside the bodies of blast victims outside a hospital on May 11.

Election officials count ballot papers at the end of polling in Quetta, Pakistan on May 11.

Pakistani supporters of Islamic party Jammat-e-Islami stage a protest in front of a provincial election commission office in Karachi on May 11.

Voters line up for their turn to vote as gaurds stand watch at a polling station in Karachi on May 11.

A Pakistani election official marks a voter’s thumb at a polling station during the general election in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on May 11.

Pakistani women jostle to receive their ballot papers prior to casting their ballot at a polling station on May 11, in the Old City of Lahore, Pakistan.

Voters in Rawalpindi gather around an election presiding officer to cast their ballots on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani voters queue for their turn to cast their ballots outside a polling station in Karachi on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani army soldiers stand guard outside a distribution center for election materials in Karachi on May 10, 2013. The nation’s military will have 75,000 troops out around the country.

Supporters of former PM Nawaz Sharif turned out for one final rally in Lahore ahead of Pakistan’s parliamentary elections on May 11. It’s the first time in the country’s history that an elected government will take over from another elected administration.

Another frontrunner for prime minister, Imran Khan, has been campaigning from his hospital bed after he was injured falling from a lift at a campaign rally on May 7.

Khan, a charismatic former cricketer, has proved a popular candidate among Pakistan’s young, urban middle class.

Politics is a bloody affair in Pakistan, and this leadership struggle is no exception. Dozens have been killed in attacks in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s election.

The most deadly attack, an explosion during a rally in the Kurram tribal district on May 6, killed 18 people and wounded 55.

Ali Haider Gilani, a son of former Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was kidnapped by gunmen while canvassing for votes in Multan on the final day of campaigning.

The leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been absent from rallies in the lead-up to the elections. The 24-year old, who became chairman after his mother, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, is not yet old enough to run for parliament.

Former president Pervez Musharraf announced plans to run in the elections after returning from exile last month, but was disqualified from the race amid claims he illegally placed senior judges under house arrest during his rule.

For the first time, women in tribal regions are running for office. 43-year-old Nusrat Begum is challenging the Taliban for a seat in Lower Dir.

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Photos: High turnout, violence mark Pakistan elections

Deposed PM wins Pakistan election

Pakistan votes amid Karachi blasts

Pakistani hope for election

Imran Khan, the former cricket star whose party was participating in general elections for the first time, said voting was rigged.

“Unfortunately, it’s because the provincial governments were in power right up till 20 days before the elections, so they had plenty of time to place their people,” said Khan, suggesting that police and electoral officials were “used.”

He said his party was gathering evidence of the irregularities.

Khan, who was injured in a dramatic fall at a campaign rally just days before voting began, was considered to be a wild card in the election.

Analysts saw him and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party (PTI) as popular with members of the urban middle class, who support his call to end drone strikes in the country’s restive tribal regions and his pledge to sweep away rampant corruption by ending foreign aid.

Reyhanli, Turkey (CNN) — Rage grew in a Turkish town on Syria’s border Monday in the aftermath of weekend bombings, as the government blamed Marxists with Syrian connections for the deadly attacks.

Gathered before the ruins left when two explosive-laden cars went off Saturday, residents of Reyhanli called on Turkey’s government to step down, alleging that it has gotten their country too involved Syria’s troubles.

Hours later, rescuers pulled out another corpse from the rubble and placed it in a black body back for transit, said CNN Senior International Correspondent Ben Wedeman. It brought the death toll to at least 47. Another 100 or so have been injured, authorities have said.

The Turkish government places the blame for the attacks on local perpetrators.

“For the time being, there is no evidence suggesting that al Qaeda was involved,” Interior Minister Muammer Guler told Turkey’s state news agency, Anatolia.

Rebel fighters fire at government forces in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Sunday, May 12. Tensions in Syria first flared in March 2011 during the onset of the Arab Spring, eventually escalating into a civil war that still rages. This gallery contains the most compelling images taken since the start of the conflict.

Smoke rises from an explosion in a Syrian village near the Israeli border on Tuesday, May 7.

Multiple explosions hit a Syrian village near the Israeli border on May 6.

A photo released by the Syrian Arab News Agency shows destruction from what is said was bomb attack in the Al-Hama area of Damascus on Sunday, May 5. According to the Syrian government, Israel launched an attack on a research center in the Damascus suburbs early Sunday.

People run for cover after what activists said was shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s Raqqa province, on May 3.

People walk past a damaged building and multiple destroyed cars at the site of an explosion in Damascus where at least 13 were killed on April 30.

Cleaning takes place following another explosion in an upscale Damascus neightborhood on Monday, April 29. Syrian Prime Minister Wael al-Halqi survived the bombing targeting his motorcade.

A smoke cloud rises from shelling on the the al-Turkman mountains in Syria’s Latakia province on Thursday, April 25.

Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25.

A handout photograph from Syria’s national news agency SANA shows damage and debris from a mortar attack in the suburb of Jarmana near Damascus, Syria, on Wednesday, April 24. The attack killed seven and wounded more than 25, according to activists and state media. No group claimed responsibility for the mortar fire, which SANA said hit a municipality office and a school building.

A Kurdish fighter from the “Popular Protection Units” (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21.

People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21.

Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20.

Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15.

Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14.

A Syrian boy holds an AK-47 assault rifle in the streets of Aleppo on Sunday, April 14.

A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo’s Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on April 11.

A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on Thursday, April 11.

Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10.

Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8.

The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo’s Saladin district, seen here on April 8.

A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2.

A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper.

A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27.

A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24.

A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20.

Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19.

Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11.

Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11.

A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2.

Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2.

A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1.

A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16.

A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16.

A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14.

Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7.

A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6.

A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3.

People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3.

Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3.

An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25.

Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20.

A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19.

A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18.

Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16.

A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8.

Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7.

A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3.

A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July.

Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8.

Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6.

Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5.

The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city.

Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1 as fighting continues through the night.

Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29.

A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20.

Syrians protesters stand on Assad’s portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16.

A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15.

Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11.

A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6.

A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a “sniper alley” near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4.

Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3 in Aleppo.

A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31.

A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31.

A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26.

Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25.

A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22.

A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21.

A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army’s Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20.

Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20.

Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16.

A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11.

A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10.

A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1.

Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18.

Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16.

A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14.

A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13.

on September 8.” border=”0″ /Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8.

A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4.

A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26.

Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo’s Saif al-Dawla district on August 22.

A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21 in Aleppo.

Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21 in Aleppo.

People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21.

A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20.

A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband’s body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15.

A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23.

Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23.

Members of the Free Syrian Army’s Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12 in Qusayr.

Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10.

A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9.

Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9.

Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9.

A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9.

A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, a year after the uprising began.

Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14.

A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27.

A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011.

A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011.

A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011.

Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011.

Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria’s northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz.

A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011.

A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the “Day of Rage” demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad.

Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011.

A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources.

Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.

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Syrian civil war in photos

Turkey: No chemical weapons here

Babacan: Syrian regime will fall

Possible solutions to Syria war

The nine suspects in custody are all Turkish nationals, he said. Guler and other Turkish officials accuse a former Marxist terror group that they say maintains relations with Syria’s intelligence services.

Sunday anguish

Funeral prayers echoed across Reyhanli on Sunday.

The families of the dead huddled under umbrellas in the town cemetery to lay their loved ones to rest, while others cried in streets still strewn with broken glass and twisted metal.

Of the 50 people who remained hospitalized late Saturday, 29 were in critical condition, Guler said.

Islamabad, Pakistan (CNN) — Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister whose government was overthrown by a military coup more than a decade ago, appears to be back on top in Pakistan, election officials have said, despite claims by other parties of vote rigging.

According to unofficial results disclosed Sunday from the country’s violence-marred elections over the weekend, Sharif’s party, the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N), looks to have won most of the seats in the National Assembly.

One of the country’s leading industrialists and richest men, Sharif has been prime minister twice before and was overthrown in a coup when Gen. Pervez Musharraf seized power in 1999. Sharif was subsequently jailed before going into exile in Saudi Arabia. He returned to Pakistan in 2007.

Supporters of Pakistani politician Imran Khan stage a protest in Karachi on Sunday, May 12, claiming the vote was rigged. Khan said his party would submit a report on alleged vote-rigging. Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister whose government was overthrown by a military coup more than a decade ago, appeared to be back on top, election officials said Sunday.

Supporters of Imran Khan shout slogans during a protest on May 12. Across the country, 29 people were killed in Election Day violence on May 11.

Khan supporters carry their party flags in a rally in Rawalpindi on May 12.

Supporters of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s party, celebrate election results in front of a party office in Lahore on election night, Saturday, May 11.

Sharif’s supporters celebrate May 11 in Lahore.

Soldiers cordon off the site of a bomb explosion in Karachi on Saturday, May 11. Four blasts hit Karachi as people voted, causing 14 deaths and dozens of injuries.

A bomb disposal expert examines the site of a detonation in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Men move a stretcher carrying an injured man at a hospital, following a bomb explosion in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Volunteers move an injured boy to a hospital following a bomb explosion in Karachi on May 11.

Volunteers gather beside the bodies of blast victims outside a hospital on May 11.

Election officials count ballot papers at the end of polling in Quetta, Pakistan on May 11.

Pakistani supporters of Islamic party Jammat-e-Islami stage a protest in front of a provincial election commission office in Karachi on May 11.

Voters line up for their turn to vote as gaurds stand watch at a polling station in Karachi on May 11.

A Pakistani election official marks a voter’s thumb at a polling station during the general election in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on May 11.

Pakistani women jostle to receive their ballot papers prior to casting their ballot at a polling station on May 11, in the Old City of Lahore, Pakistan.

Voters in Rawalpindi gather around an election presiding officer to cast their ballots on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani voters queue for their turn to cast their ballots outside a polling station in Karachi on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani army soldiers stand guard outside a distribution center for election materials in Karachi on May 10, 2013. The nation’s military will have 75,000 troops out around the country.

Supporters of former PM Nawaz Sharif turned out for one final rally in Lahore ahead of Pakistan’s parliamentary elections on May 11. It’s the first time in the country’s history that an elected government will take over from another elected administration.

Another frontrunner for prime minister, Imran Khan, has been campaigning from his hospital bed after he was injured falling from a lift at a campaign rally on May 7.

Khan, a charismatic former cricketer, has proved a popular candidate among Pakistan’s young, urban middle class.

Politics is a bloody affair in Pakistan, and this leadership struggle is no exception. Dozens have been killed in attacks in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s election.

The most deadly attack, an explosion during a rally in the Kurram tribal district on May 6, killed 18 people and wounded 55.

Ali Haider Gilani, a son of former Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was kidnapped by gunmen while canvassing for votes in Multan on the final day of campaigning.

of the Pakistan People’s Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been absent from rallies in the lead-up to the elections. The 24-year old, who became chairman after his mother, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, is not yet old enough to run for parliament.” border=”0″ /The leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been absent from rallies in the lead-up to the elections. The 24-year old, who became chairman after his mother, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, is not yet old enough to run for parliament.

Former president Pervez Musharraf announced plans to run in the elections after returning from exile last month, but was disqualified from the race amid claims he illegally placed senior judges under house arrest during his rule.

For the first time, women in tribal regions are running for office. 43-year-old Nusrat Begum is challenging the Taliban for a seat in Lower Dir.

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Photos: High turnout, violence mark Pakistan elections

Deposed PM wins Pakistan election

Pakistan votes amid Karachi blasts

Pakistani hope for election

Imran Khan, the former cricket star whose party was participating in general elections for the first time, said voting was rigged.

“Unfortunately, it’s because the provincial governments were in power right up till 20 days before the elections, so they had plenty of time to place their people,” said Khan, suggesting that police and electoral officials were “used.”

Khan, who was injured in a dramatic fall at a campaign rally just days before voting began, was considered to be a wildcard in the election.

Analysts saw him and his Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party as popular with members of the urban middle class, who support his call to end drone strikes in the country’s restive tribal regions and his pledge to sweep away rampant corruption by ending foreign aid.

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) — The unflinching account from a defector revealed how he picked corn kernels out of cow manure to eat as he competed with his family for food at one of North Korea’s notorious prison camps.

He was also forced to watch his mother’s hanging and his brother’s execution. He was born in a “total control zone” where prison authorities wield complete power, where guards beat children to death with no hesitation.

A memoir detailing Shin Dong-hyuk’s life, “Escape from Camp 14″ hit the bookshelves in South Korea this month. The original English version published in March last year.

Shin, 30, is the only man known to have been born and to escape from a North Korean prison known as Camp 14.

His account put a human face on the abuses in North Korean prison camps, a brutal system which has survived twice as long as Stalin’s Soviet gulags and much longer than the Nazi concentration camps.

“The existence of prison camps in the North should be known to the people around the world,” Shin said. “There are some people born and raised as an animal in North Korea. I have to explain that to everyone.”

North Korea rattles saber again

Expert: Malnutrition issue in N. Korea

Jailed American an asset for North Korea

The hope in writing the book was to raise awareness about conditions inside North Korea, said Blaine Harden, the author of “Escape from Camp 14: One Man’s Remarkable Odyssey from North Korea to Freedom in the West.”

Its impact was unanticipated, said Harden, when the pair spoke at the Asan Institute last week in Seoul.

In March, the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva agreed to examine what it called “grave, widespread and systematic” violations of human rights in North Korea, including the use of prison camps. While the book was not the sole reason, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay met with Shin and another North Korean prison camp survivor in December

Lahore (CNN) — Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister whose government was overthrown by a military coup more than a decade ago, appears to be back on top in Pakistan, election officials said Sunday.

According to unofficial results in Pakistan’s violence-marred election, Sharif’s party looks to have won most of the seats in the National Assembly. It won 16 of the 23 seats in the lower house, election officials said.

Imran Khan, candidate for the Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice) party, said the elections were rigged.

“Police (were) used, and how the — the staff of the Election Commission were used,” he said. “And unfortunately it’s because the provincial governments were in power right up till 20 days before the elections — so they had plenty of time to place their people.”

Still, democracy moved forward, he said.

“But I’m very optimistic that the foundation of what we call the new Pakistan has been laid,” he said. “Pakistan will never be the same again. … Because of the youth participation and female participation, we have seen incredible scenes at this — vibrancy at this — in the elections.”

Supporters of Pakistani politician Imran Khan stage a protest in Karachi on Sunday, May 12, claiming the vote was rigged. Khan said his party would submit a report on alleged vote-rigging. Nawaz Sharif, the prime minister whose government was overthrown by a military coup more than a decade ago, appeared to be back on top, election officials said Sunday.

Supporters of Imran Khan shout slogans during a protest on May 12. Across the country, 29 people were killed in Election Day violence on May 11.

Khan supporters carry their party flags in a rally in Rawalpindi on May 12.

Supporters of Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, Nawaz Sharif’s party, celebrate election results in front of a party office in Lahore on election night, Saturday, May 11.

Sharif’s supporters celebrate May 11 in Lahore.

Soldiers cordon off the site of a bomb explosion in Karachi on Saturday, May 11. Four blasts hit Karachi as people voted, causing 14 deaths and dozens of injuries.

A bomb disposal expert examines the site of a detonation in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Men move a stretcher carrying an injured man at a hospital, following a bomb explosion in Karachi, Pakistan on May 11.

Volunteers move an injured boy to a hospital following a bomb explosion in Karachi on May 11.

Volunteers gather beside the bodies of blast victims outside a hospital on May 11.

Election officials count ballot papers at the end of polling in Quetta, Pakistan on May 11.

Pakistani supporters of Islamic party Jammat-e-Islami stage a protest in front of a provincial election commission office in Karachi on May 11.

Voters line up for their turn to vote as gaurds stand watch at a polling station in Karachi on May 11.

A Pakistani election official marks a voter’s thumb at a polling station during the general election in Rawalpindi, Pakistan, on May 11.

Pakistani women jostle to receive their ballot papers prior to casting their ballot at a polling station on May 11, in the Old City of Lahore, Pakistan.

Voters in Rawalpindi gather around an election presiding officer to cast their ballots on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani voters queue for their turn to cast their ballots outside a polling station in Karachi on May 11, 2013.

Pakistani army soldiers stand guard outside a distribution center for election materials in Karachi on May 10, 2013. The nation’s military will have 75,000 troops out around the country.

Supporters of former PM Nawaz Sharif turned out for one final rally in Lahore ahead of Pakistan’s parliamentary elections on May 11. It’s the first time in the country’s history that an elected government will take over from another elected administration.

Another frontrunner for prime minister, Imran Khan, has been campaigning from his hospital bed after he was injured falling from a lift at a campaign rally on May 7.

Khan, a charismatic former cricketer, has proved a popular candidate among Pakistan’s young, urban middle class.

Politics is a bloody affair in Pakistan, and this leadership struggle is no exception. Dozens have been killed in attacks in the weeks leading up to Saturday’s election.

The most deadly attack, an explosion during a rally in the Kurram tribal district on May 6, killed 18 people and wounded 55.

Ali Haider Gilani, a son of former Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, was kidnapped by gunmen while canvassing for votes in Multan on the final day of campaigning.

The leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, has been absent from rallies in the lead-up to the elections. The 24-year old, who became chairman after his mother, Benazir Bhutto, was assassinated, is not yet old enough to run for parliament.

Former president Pervez Musharraf announced plans to run in the elections after returning from exile last month, but was disqualified from the race amid claims he illegally placed senior judges under house arrest during his rule.

For the first time, women in tribal regions are running for office. 43-year-old Nusrat Begum is challenging the Taliban for a seat in Lower Dir.

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Photos: High turnout, violence mark Pakistan elections

Pakistani voters have many choices

Pakistan’s election: What’s at stake?

Pakistani hope for election

His party won four seats in the lower house, election officials said.

Further election results were not immediately available.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry called the election a historic democratic step.

“The Pakistani people stood up resiliently to threats by violent extremists,” he said. “We’ll be working with the new government to advance shared interests including a peaceful, more prosperous and stable future for Pakistan and the region.”

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tweeted his congratulations to Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz party on their “emphatic victory.”

Saturday’s voting saw bursts of deadly violence aimed at polling stations that failed to deter Pakistanis keen to have their say in landmark national and provincial elections.

Voter turnout was nearly 60%, the chief election commissioner said early Sunday. Many were voting for the first time.

The national election marks the first transition between civilian governments in the nation’s 66-year history.

In its short existence, Pakistan has experienced three military coups and been ruled by generals for half its life. It remains mired in political turmoil.

In March, the democratically elected government finished serving a full five-year term, paving the way for the elections.

Street parties erupted in the cities of Lahore and Peshawar early Sunday, with hundreds of people celebrating even before the results of the vote were in.

In his stronghold of Lahore, Sharif said he was confident his party will form the next government. He said he hopes his party won enough seats to form a government on its own but that he is willing to work with others to solve the country’s problems.

The Election Commission extended polling hours in some constituencies in the southern city of Karachi, where there were complaints about the vote.

The Election Commission secretary, Ishtiak Ahmed Khan, told a news conference the election was free and fair across much of the country, despite the problems in Karachi.

Aside from claims of irregularities, four blasts hit Karachi as people voted, killing 14 people and wounding dozens. Across the country, 29 people were killed in Election Day violence.

Despite pre-election attacks, voters lined up at dawn at polling stations nationwide, eager to send off the caretaker government put in place in March.

“This is the first time I am voting and I am 60; I want change,” said Shaheen Khan, who was at a polling station in Karachi, the nation’s largest city. “There were thousands of people when I came. … The queue was so long, people in wheelchairs and crutches all waiting to vote.”

Waits of three hours or more were reported at some polling stations. Election officials also reported delays in opening at some polls, the official Associated Press of Pakistan news agency reported.

A statement from the office of interim Prime Minister Mir Hazar Khan Khoso thanked the people of Pakistan for “coming out in huge numbers” to vote, as well as everyone involved in participating in and organizing the elections.

He voiced “confidence that the next phase of counting of votes will also be completed smoothly,” and reiterated the determination of the caretaker government to hand over power to the winners without delay.

More vote-rigging claims

The leader of the governing Pakistan People’s Party, Taj Haider, alleged vote rigging in some constituencies in Sindh province and its capital, Karachi, in a news conference broadcast by CNN affiliate Geo TV. Haider called on the country’s Election Commission to hold a new vote in the affected constituencies.

Leaders of the Sindh-based Muttahida Quami Movement, one of Pakistan’s largest and most liberal parties, told reporters that they would boycott the elections over allegations of rigging.

The Sunni Ittehad Council and Jamaat-e-Islami parties also announced a boycott, Geo TV reported.

Many Pakistanis hope the polls will usher in reform in a country battling issues including corruption, a struggling economy and security threats.

President Asif Ali Zardari condemned Saturday’s election violence but said the militants’ “cowardly acts” would not stop people from exercising their right to vote.

An open letter from Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani schoolgirl who was attacked by the Taliban last year for her efforts to promote girls’ education, urged everyone, and particularly women, to use their votes.

“If we want education, electricity and natural gas in our country, we must take a step,” said her letter, published by Pakistan’s Dawn website. “Let’s vote for our country. We never realized how much powerful our vote is. One vote can change our country.”

Blasts target voters

In some cities, the insecurity was evident Saturday.

Two of the blasts in Karachi targeted the Awami National Party office, killing 11 and wounding 36, said Naeem Shah, a spokesman for Karachi police.

A third explosion was in the Karachi suburb of Landhi. It killed three people and wounded nine, according to the deputy commissioner of Malir district, Qazi Jan Mohammed. Voting continued afterward, he said.

A fourth explosion, which wounded four people, was in the Peerabad area of Karachi, Shah said.

Fakhruddin Ebrahim, the chief election commissioner for Pakistan, said he contacted the military over security concerns in Karachi and the harassment of polling station staff in the city. He said polling material was stolen in several areas.

Eleven people were killed in two separate bombings in Pakistan’s volatile Balochistan province, district police officer Allauddin Kasi said. One of the attacks was on a vehicle carrying voters who had cast their ballots, he said.

Another targeted independent candidate Khadim Shah, the prime minister’s office said in a statement condemning the bombing.

Elsewhere in Balochistan, at least four people were killed and eight injured in a clash between two groups at a polling station, police official Sardar Muhammad said.

In another incident, 12 Awami National Party supporters were hurt by a hand grenade thrown at a party electoral office in Quetta, said Syed Mobeen Ahmed, a deputy inspector general of police.

Brig. Muhammad Abdur Raheem, the military spokesman for Balochistan, said polling still went well in the province apart from interruptions caused by a few incidents. There was a good turnout, including by women voters, he said.

In the northwestern city of Peshawar, 12 people, children among them, were wounded when a bomb exploded at a polling station in a school, said Habibullah Arif, a local deputy commissioner.

Record numbers

(CNN) — While the world’s attention was focused on Boston and North Korea, the conflict in Syria entered a new phase — one that threatens to embroil its neighbors in a chaotic way and pose complex challenges to the Obama administration.

What began as a protest movement long ago became an uprising that metastasized into a war, a vicious whirlpool dragging a whole region toward it.

Many analysts believe the United States can do little to influence — let alone control — the situation. And it could make things worse. Fawaz Gerges of the London School of Economics argues against the United States “plunging into the killing fields of Syria … because it would complicate and exacerbate an already dangerous conflict.”

Others contend that if the United States remains on the sidelines, regional actors will fight each other to “inherit” Syria, and hostile states such as Iran and North Korea will take note of American hesitancy. They say inaction has given free rein to more extreme forces.

And in the wake of the strikes against Damascus, apparently by Israeli planes, critics argue that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is now more vulnerable than ever and U.S. intervention could help finish him off.

Syrian opposition: Russia changed stance

Obama takes aim at Syria, North Korea

A war wary village

Difficulty of proving chemical weapons

Republican Sen. John McCain has revived calls for a no-fly zone. And introducing legislation to arm the Syrian rebels in the U.S. Senate on Monday, Democratic Sen. Robert Menendez said: “There will be no greater strategic setback to Iran than to have the Assad regime collapse, and cause a disruption to the terror pipeline between Tehran and Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

But more than two years since the revolt against al-Assad began, regional analysts say Syria is in danger of becoming the next Somalia, which collapsed into fiefdoms 20 years ago and has been stalked by anarchy, terrorism and hunger ever since. Except Syria would be worse. Its religious and ethnic fault lines extend across borders in every direction; Somalia’s anarchy was largely self-contained. Somalia never had chemical weapons, nor the missiles and modern armor that make Syria one of the most crowded arsenals in the world.

And unlike Syria, Somalia was never central to a titanic struggle between different branches of Islam: Sunni and Shia.

See destruction from airstrikes in Syria

Syria’s battle of the textbooks

Israel bolsters defense near Syria

Military analysts believe Hezbollah has an arsenal of some 50,000 missiles and rockets, supported by a sophisticated, hardened infrastructure that would be even harder to uproot than during its last conflict with Israel in 2006. Little wonder that Israel has deployed two of its Iron Dome missile-defense batteries in its northern cities.

Will the Syrians retaliate for the strikes, which they describe as a declaration of war by Israel? To do so would divert resources from the regime’s battle for survival. Not to do so would convey an image of weakness in the face of the “Zionist enemy.”

Al-Assad has a history of not retaliating against Israel, most notably when the Israelis took out what was purported to be a Syrian nuclear installation in 2007. According to Cliff Kupchan with the Eurasia Group, Israel has calculated that “Bashar al-Assad is incapable of fighting on two fronts, that Iran will keep its powder dry for a possible future conflict over its nuclear program, and that Hezbollah will not attempt significant retribution without approval from its sponsors.”

But one risk to Israel is that in weakening the Assad regime, it may strengthen some of the best organized and most potent rebel factions: jihadist groups such as the al-Nusra Front, which has already declared its affiliation with al Qaeda in Iraq.

2: More than ever, it’s sectarian

In the early days of the Syrian uprising, people who were anti- and pro-regime shared one common dread: that Syria would descend, Bosnia-style, into sectarian horror. Now, in the fight to prevail, that has become a reality.

Moderates have been sidelined, and despite efforts to revitalize the opposition’s political leadership in exile there is still no umbilical cord between the government-in-waiting and the fighters inside Syria.

The Free Syrian Army coexists with a strong Sunni jihadi element, while the regime is mobilizing “irregular” Alawite militia and Hezbollah fighters.

Syria’s (largely Sunni) rebels say hundreds if not thousands of (Shia) Hezbollah fighters are now fighting for the Assad regime. Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, said last week that his party would not stand by and watch the Assad government fall. Regional analysts believe there is a very real risk that along the poorly marked Syrian-Lebanese border, Sunni jihadists will come up against Hezbollah units, setting off a vicious war-within-a-war.

The Syrian opposition sees Iran and Hezbollah everywhere. The head of the UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdel-Rahman told the newspaper Asharq al-Awsat that “Iranian and Hezbollah officers are running the operations room in the battle for Homs and are controlling the army operations in the city.”

He warned of “massacres against the Sunni community living in the besieged areas if the army captures these areas.”

Such massacres were reported in the past week in the coastal Sunni enclaves in Baniyas and al-Bayda. The State Department said over the weekend that “regime and shabiha forces reportedly destroyed the area with mortar fire, then stormed the town and executed entire families, including women and children.”

3: Al-Assad goes for broke?

After being on the defensive for months, the Syrian regime has recently launched a series of brutal counterattacks against areas controlled by rebel factions, seeking to restore precious lines of communication and reconnect Damascus with other parts of the country. In so doing, it appears Assad has relied even more on the shabiha — loyalists with an existential stake in the regime’s survival.

As veteran Middle East watcher Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies has put it: “The Assad regime seems ready to escalate in any way it can to either preserve power or effectively divide the country.”

Among the areas where this counteroffensive has been most intense is Daraya, south of the capital, which has been reduced to ruins on the principle that “if we can’t control it nor shall you.” To the east of Damascus, regime forces have encircled rebels in the Gouta region, relieving the immediate threat to Damascus airport, which is at one end of the critical air bridge between Syria and Iran.

As critical as these areas around Damascus is the town of Qusayr between Homs and the Lebanese border, once home to 50,000 people. Videos uploaded in recent days show the regime pouring artillery fire into the town and conducting airstrikes from above; whole blocks have been demolished. Claims emerged Wednesday from opposition sources of new massacres around the town.

Qusayr sits astride one route to the Syrian coast and another to the Lebanese border. For the rebels, holding Qusayr is important because it’s another way of strangling the regime’s ability to sustain itself, and it complicates Hezbollah’s access to Syria.

The signs are that al-Assad is investing heavily in trying to break the rebels’ hold in key parts of south and central Syria, reversing the gains they had made in a series of hard-won victories last year.

Short of forceful foreign intervention, some military analysts argue for tying al-Assad’s hands behind his back by providing the rebels with more anti-armor and anti-aircraft missiles and a communications infrastructure. More ambitiously, some say the international community should enforce what might be called a “no-move” zone, selectively picking off regime forces from the air or with missiles.

In essence, that’s what NATO’s mission in Libya became. But it would take considerable airpower and the use of facilities across the region to gain control of the Syrian sky. The chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, said at the end of April: “The U.S. military has the capability to defeat that system (of Syrian air defenses), but it would be a greater challenge, and would take longer and require more resources” than in Libya.

4: Chemical Weapons

For much of last year, Obama’s “red line” seemed a largely hypothetical one. But as al-Assad’s situation grows more desperate and control of chemical weapons stocks more difficult to guarantee, there are indications that some chemical agents have been used in limited quantities in places like Daraya. The questions are: how much, of what and by whom?

The announcement by a senior U.N. official Monday that rebels may have used sarin gas during an operation near Aleppo in March means this red line is even more difficult to discern. The U.N. commission subsequently said it “has not reached conclusive findings as to the use of chemical weapons in Syria by any parties to the conflict.”

Establishing “custody” and the systematic use of such weapons is very difficult in the absence of monitors on the ground.

A U.S. State Department official on Monday would say only: “We take any reports of use of chemical weapons very seriously and we are trying to get as many facts as possible to understand what is happening.”

But understanding and countering the threat are miles apart. The Pentagon estimated last year it might take 70,000 troops to secure or destroy Syria’s massive stockpiles — and the situation on the ground has deteriorated since then.

In Cordesman’s view, “Any U.S. forces that tried to deal with the chemical weapons in Syria through ground raids would present the problem of getting them in, having them fight their way to an objective, taking the time to destroy chemical stocks, and then safely leaving.”

5: Players and Puppets: Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan

Syria is surrounded by neighbors with a stake in influencing the outcome of its civil war. Most — and other more distant states such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia — are backing their own factions as well as supporting the “government-in-waiting.” Now more than ever they feel the force of that whirlpool.

Iraq’s beleaguered Sunni minority is more and more in confrontation with a Shia-dominated government in Baghdad allied to Iran. The Sunni tribes of Anbar and Ramadi have historical connections with their brethren across the border and would welcome a Sunni-dominated government in Syria as a valuable counterbalance to a hostile government at home.

For more than a year, there have been persistent reports of weapons crossing the border to help the Syrian resistance and evidence of co-operation between Syrian and Iraqi jihadists. Resupply convoys headed through Iraq to the Syrian regime have been ambushed in recent months.

In the view of Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, “Iraq is teetering back towards civil war, with direct implications for the investment climate across the country, and deepening geopolitical conflict between Iran and the Sunni monarchies” of the Gulf.

Turkey is also growing alarmed at the prospect of a more “Balkanized” Syria. It already has 322,000 refugees on its soil, according to latest figures from the UNHCR, the U.N. refugee agency, with another 100,000 clamoring to cross.

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has upped his rhetoric in recent days, criticizing the Israeli strikes but reserving his most passionate denunciation for the Assad regime.

“You, Bashar Assad, will pay for this. You will pay heavily, very heavily for showing courage you can’t show to others, to babies with pacifiers in their mouths,” he told an audience over the weekend.

But Erdogan is struggling to turn indignation into influence. As the International Crisis Group noted in March: Turkey “now has an uncontrollable, fractured, radicalized no-man’s-land on its doorstep.”

The Jordanians know how that feels. They are trying to cope with 450,000 Syrian refugees — equivalent to some 7% of the Jordanian population — growing restless and desperate in makeshift camps. The number in Lebanon has shot up to 455,000, according to the United Nations. In all, the Syrian conflict has generated an extra half million refugees in just two months.

Lebanon — whose sectarian equation mirrors that in Syria — cannot help but be dragged into the war next door. Several Salafist sheikhs in Lebanon have declared jihad against the Syrian regime in response to Hezbollah’s growing involvement. One of them, Sheikh Ahmed Assir, called on Sunnis in the city of Sidon to form brigades to help the resistance in Qusayr. And rocket fire, apparently from the Free Syrian Army, has landed in Shiite areas around the Lebanese town of Hermel.

A land of bad options

Some critics of the Obama administration say there is a moral imperative to intervene in Syria in the face of slaughter (at least 70,000 Syrians have died so far.) In the Washington Post, former Obama adviser Anne Marie Slaughter has recalled the “shameful” failure to confront genocide in Rwanda.

But Cordesman writes: “Syria has become the land of bad options. The Obama administration has reason to hesitate in intervening.”

And Joshua Landis, who runs the blog Syria Comment and is director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma, warns that even “a humanitarian intervention will become a nation-building project, as was the case in Iraq.”

With the number of internally displaced now put at 4.25 million people, that would be a huge project.

The dream among diplomats a year ago was that a moderate opposition could be brought together with some regime elements to ease al-Assad from power. As the Syrian war threatens to become a regional one, the United States and Russia are dusting off that option, calling for an international conference within weeks that would be attended by both the government and the opposition.

“The alternative is that Syria heads closer to the abyss, if not over the abyss and into chaos,” said U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.